Low-pressure area may spin up over Bay

A cyclonic circulation lay over North-West Bay of Bengal off West Bengal coast on Friday, and is expected to set up a low-pressure area over off the North Andhra Pradesh-South Odisha coasts by Saturday, ending the ongoing weak monsoon phase, said India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Facilitating this, the western end of the monsoon trough that runs along the Himalayan foothills will shift gradually southwards to its normal position. The eastern end now runs near its normal position and passes through Bahraich, Patna, Giridh, Digha and to the Bay where it will anchor the low.

The monsoon trough, the spine of the monsoon system over North India and Central India, is expected to remain near its normal or just south of its normal position (which signals an active monsoon phase) during the next five days, and dictate spread of rainfall, now deficient by 10 per cent for the entire country.

Widespread rain seen

The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Odisha and Andhra Pradesh until Sunday; Telangana until Tuesday; Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand on Saturday and Sunday; and Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh from Sunday to Tuesday.

Weak monsoon conditions may end in the next two days

A similar outlook is valid for East Gujarat on Monday and Tuesday; Marathwada on Monday; and North Konkan and North Madhya Maharashtra on Tuesday. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls will persist over North-East India, plains of West Bengal and Sikkim till Friday.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over coastal and south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Mahe for next three days. Isolated extremely heavy falls is likely the ghats of Tamil Nadu and Kerala on Saturday and Sunday.

Follow-up ‘low’ forecast

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls will continue over Uttarakhand, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh till Sunday. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls likely over Uttarakhand and East Uttar Pradesh during until Saturday, while it will be light/moderate isolated to scattered rainfall over the rest parts of North-West India from Saturday to Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the IMD said in an extended outlook that a rain-driving ‘low’ each will form not just during the ongoing week (August 26-September 1), but also the subsequent one (September 2 to 8) off the coasts of North Andhra-Pradesh and South Odisha, opening up the new phase of monsoon.

The development comes at the fag-end of an unusually lean month of August, normally the second rainiest, which saw a weak phase (not amounting to a canonical break) hampering the smooth rollout of the monsoon on three occasions, leaving it in a two-figure (10 per cent) deficit.

10 per cent rain deficit

Among meteorological subdivisions, those in deficit are: Lakshadweep, Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa, East Gujarat, Odisha, West Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura, and Arunachal Pradesh.

Weather may impact soyabean, cotton, sugarcane and paddy crops

An outlook for the week September 2 to 8 said that the monsoon trough is likely to remain near normal to south of its position during most days of the week, which favours continued rain. There will l be an increase in rainfall for North-West and Central India compared to the week before.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is forecast over Central and adjoining North-West and North Peninsular India during most of the days. Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall likely over rest parts of country except North-West India.

A trend for overall normal to above normal rain is indicated for Central and adjoining North-West and North Peninsular India; near normal rain over most parts of East and North-East India, while it will be below normal rainfall over most parts of South Peninsular India during September 2 to 8.

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