The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said a cyclonic circulation lies over Myanmar and adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal, which is expected to deepen into a low-pressure area, the last of the 2023 monsoon, over East-Central and adjoining North-East Bay of Bengal by Friday. Thereafter, it is likely to concentrate into being ‘well-marked,’ usually the first stage of intensification, during the weekend and move towards North Odisha and adjoining West Bengal coasts. 

Monsoon withdrawal 

This is expected to trigger a fresh round of a wet spell over East India and parts of Central and Peninsular India. The 2023 June-September season had started to withdraw from South-West Rajasthan a little more than a week later than the revised dateline. With two more days to go, the all-India rain deficit stands at six per cent, having recovered in September from double-digits earlier. 

The IMD said said on Thursday conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of the monsoon from some more parts of North-West and adjoining West-Central India during next 2-3 days. The line of withdrawal continues to pass through Nokhra, Jodhpur and Barmer in Rajasthan on Thursday. But the process may encounter rain wave over East India and adjoining North-East India as well as parts of Peninsular and South India as the fresh low-pressure area takes shape over the Bay. 

Squally weather, rain

The IMD had forecast squally weather over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands on Thursday with wind speeds reaching 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr. Isolated very heavy rain is likely over the Islands until Saturday and over Odisha on Monday and Tuesday.  Light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain, thunderstorms and lightning with isolated heavy rain are forecast over Andaman & Nicobar Islands until Sunday; over Odisha from Friday to Sunday; over the plains of West Bengal on Friday and Saturday; over Jharkhand, from Saturday to Monday; and over Bihar on Monday. 

Central, South India 

In the South, light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over the ghats of Tamil Nadu, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Interior Karnataka into the first couple of days in October. Isolated very heavy rainfall has been warned over Coastal Karnataka on Friday and Saturday. In the West, light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain, thunderstorms, lightning and isolated heavy rain is forecast over Konkan-Goa until Sunday. Central India too will see fairly widespread to widespread rain, thunderstorms, lightning and isolated heavy rain over Chhattisgarh.