Agri Business

‘Low' over Bay, may signal next monsoon phase

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on June 08, 2011 Published on June 08, 2011


On a day of fast-paced developments, the low-pressure area over east-central Arabian Sea became “well-marked” in the first round of intensification.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) expected it to further intensify into a monsoon depression over the next two days.

Significantly, the strong flows have opened up a window on the Bay of Bengal side as well with a counterpart “low” being thrown up straddling the northwest of the basin as also adjoining land in coastal Orissa and West Bengal.

The monsoon has since advanced over more parts of Bay of Bengal and the Northeastern States, the IMD update said.

The northern limit passed through Dahanu, Nasik, Gulbarga, Rentachintala, Narsapur, Agartala, Shillong and Itanagar.

Conditions are favourable for its further advance over remaining parts of Bay and the Northeastern States and parts of Orissa, West Bengal and Sikkim during through the rest of the week.

Satellite pictures on Wednesday afternoon showed convective clouds standing tall over parts of coastal Orissa, Telangana, east-central and adjoining west-central Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.

The Bay ‘low' would have a crucial bearing in bringing monsoon flows into east and central India during the course of the week and early into the next.

In fact, the churn in the peninsular seas is a precursor to an emerging strong monsoon phase likely being underwritten by an eastward-bound weather-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave.

The MJO wave travels in the upper levels of the atmosphere and weighs down on ground weather by triggering build-up of convective clouds and precipitation. It has been known to set up monsoon onsets and initiate storm-building.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees a westerly trough passing through northwest India and appropriating both the ‘low's to itself.

Interaction of the three weather systems could tick off a productive monsoon session over northern peninsula, central and east India, the ECMWF said.

Published on June 08, 2011
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