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The merged cyclonic circulations in the Bay of Bengal have now strengthened into a low-pressure area, the first of the post-monsoon season, the possibility of which had been mentioned in these columns last week. The ‘low’ will bring moderate to heavy rain to North-West India, Central India and East India by turns during this week.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Odisha and Chhattisgarh today and tomorrow (Wednesday and Thursday). The other regions expected to receive similar weather during the rest of the week are as follows:
Widespread rainfall likely
West Madhya Pradesh on Thursday and Friday and East Madhya Pradesh from Wednesday to Friday. It will be fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning over Uttarakhand from Thursday to Saturday and Uttar Pradesh, from Wednesday to Saturday.
Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh on Thursday and Saturday and over East Uttar Pradesh, from Wednesday to Friday. Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Uttrakhand and North-West Uttar Pradesh on Friday.
South Peninsula to benefit
Towards the South, the ‘low’ will bring fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Telangana on Wednesday and Thursday; over Rayalaseema on Wednesday and Saturday; South Interior Karnataka, on Saturday; North Tamil Nadu on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.
Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Wednesday. Towards the North-East, fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning are likely over Arunachal Pradesh from Friday to Sunday and Assam and Meghalaya, on Friday and Saturday.
‘Low’ to stay put for now
The low-pressure area was located this (Wednesday) morning over the West-Central Bay and adjoining Andhra Pradesh. Numerical weather projections from the IMD indicate that the ‘low’ may descend to South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Chennai coasts into the next week, and throw open a trough towards Central India and North-West India.
The trough may disappear later and the ‘low’ start moving across the North Peninsula towards Mumbai, weaken into circulation and hurtle into Central India before being propelled into East India. The transient trough and the ‘low’ will combine to bring all these areas under a wet cover over the next 8-10 days.
Dense clouds off Chennai
Satellite pictures this (Wednesday) morning showed dense clouds having descended over the South Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu coasts and adjoining interior from Kavali, Nellore, Chennai, Cuddalore, Muthupet, Tiruchirappalli, Salem, Tiruvannamalai, Chittoor, Tirupathi and Bengaluru.
The possibility of the ‘low’ holding still over the waters close to Chennai may bring sustained heavy rain for the region for as long. The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction hints that the current rain regime in the South Peninsula may sustain at least until October 20 by when the North-East monsoon would likely have made the onset.
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