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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday confirmed the prospects of improvement in monsoon circulation over the next two to three days with liberal help from an approaching Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave.
The MJO wave travels in the upper atmosphere and oversees the formation of low-pressure areas/depressions/cyclones and monsoon onsets as it periodically crosses the Indian Ocean, impacting both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the process.
Eventful history
The last time it visited the region was in end-May and early-June, which witnessed the formation of two cyclones, ‘Sagar’ and ‘Mekunu,’ in the Arabian Sea, followed by the monsoon onset along the Kerala coast on May 29.
Its entry entry into the Bay triggered the formation of what should have been a crucial low-pressure area that went on to become a depression but strayed into Bangladesh, dragging the monsoon with it.
The unintended beneficiaries of the monsoon bounty were Myanmar and Bangladesh. The rains skipped Central India; the North-Eastern States made gains, though, thanks to their proximity to Bangladesh.
This set in weak monsoon conditions over most of India except parts of the West Coast and the North-Eastern States, valid till date. These are now sought to be reversed thanks to the arrival of the MJO wave.
Global factors
In a detailed bulletin on Monday evening, the IMD blamed the week-long recess in the monsoon on a combination of factors, led by weak cross-equatorial flows and the unfavourable location of the active phase of the MJO.
This was compounded by eastward-moving oscillations in the Central and East Pacific Ocean, Western Hemisphere and Africa, and development of low-pressure systems over the North-West Pacific.
The monsoon circulation is likely to improve from around Sunday (June 24) with the MJO, with helpful cyclonic circulations developing over East India leading to strengthening of monsoon easterlies over the Gangetic plains.
In this context, monsoon watchers are monitoring with interest the cyclonic circulation over the West-Central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The offshore trough on the South Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast, too, persists.
The forecast
Given this, the monsoon may advance over the remaining parts of Assam, some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and West Bengal, and some parts of Jharkhand, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh from Saturday to Monday.
From Sunday to Tuesday, the IMD has forecast widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls along the West Coast and the North-Eastern States.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over the Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands, East India, and South Peninsular India, scattered rain over Central India and isolated rain over North-West and Central India.
As for Wednesday, heavy to very heavy rain is likely at isolated places over Konkan and Goa, and heavy rain over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, Assam, Meghalaya and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
On Thursday, Konkan and Goa will witness heavy rain at a few places with very heavy and extremely heavy falls at isolated places. It will be heavy to very heavy at isolated places over Assam and Meghalaya and heavy over Arunachal Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
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