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The first low-pressure area of the pre-monsoon season is taking shape over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal and could intensify into a depression.
Usually, a ‘low’ forms over the Bay of Bengal, mostly around the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, but this time round it is likely materialising a little more west-south-west (but closer to the Sri Lankan coast and mainland India).
Depression by weekend
The India Met Department (IMD) has said that the ‘low’ would grow into a depression by the weekend and move towards the Tamil Nadu coast across the East coast of Sri Lanka.
A helpful Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave is already present over the Equatorial Indian Ocean, the arrival of which was foreacst last week itself by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
The wave is currently of weak amplitude but as it moves further East (across the Bay and the adjoining Equatorial East Indian Ocean to the South of Andaman & Nicobar Islands) it would suddenly grow in strength.
As if on cue, this would help strengthen the ‘low’ and intensify as a depression by the weekend. The MJO wave passes often across the Indian Ocean from West to East, setting up moisture, clouds and rainfall under its footprint.
Meanwhile, a weather tracker of the US Climate Prediction Centre suspects that the ‘low’ could move to the East (along the track as the MJO wave), helping it to grow further in strength and become a near-cyclone headed north-north-east.
Varying outlook
This track would take it towards Myanmar or Bangladesh, per early inference, but the track would be influenced by concurrent movement, if any, of western disturbances from North-West India to East and North-East India.
Arrival of the MJO wave along with a change in atmospheric conditions have primed the skies over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh for fireworks in the form of lightning and thunderstorms, per international model foreasts.
The IMD has forecast thuderstorms accompanied by gusty winds with speeds reaching up to 60 km/hr over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu for Tuesday (April 23).
An extended outlook valid for three days from Saturday to Tuesday next holds outs the possibility of intensification of the ‘low’ and isolated thunderstorms over the South Peninsula, the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and East India.
Meanwhile, heat wave conditions are expected to establish over Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan from Wednesday in a trend expected to engulf neighbouring areas slowly.
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