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Vinson Kurian
Even as cyclone ‘Sagar’ heads for a landfall over the Somalia coast, India Met Department (IMD) has notified the possibility of a fresh low-pressure area popping up over the South Arabian Sea by Monday.
Normally, sea conditions subside after a cyclone , but the ‘low’ is expected to take shape on the farther side of the basin closer to Lakshadweep thanks to the sheer strength of the flows.
Differing outlook
Some global models, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, insist that the ‘low’ might take shape closer to India’s West Coast, and slightly delayed, than is being indicated by the IMD.
But the ensemble model of the US National Centres for Climate Prediction joins the IMD with the outlook for an away-going system heading out into the sea before it becomes a powerful cyclone eyeing the Oman coast.
The European Centre agrees with the away-movement, but only after a likely low-turned depression toys with India’s West Coast for some time.
Strong flows
Even after cyclone Sagar has spun out the way from the open Arabian Sea, the strong flows commandeered by it are now heading straight in towards the Sri Lanka coast and Kerala coast in South India.
Embedded rain bands represented an extended area of convection right from Somalia into Sri Lanka-Kerala, marked by thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain.
So much so, the conditions have prompted the Sri Lankan Met Department to declare that monsoon conditions are establishing while Myanmar to the East delayed the outlook for the onset of rains.
The south-westerly flows heading from Somalia seem to be converging around the cyclonic circulation over South-East Arabian Sea (off the Kerala coast but over Maldives and Lakshadweep).
Building up
The rain clouds extend into the rest of the Kerala, North along the coast into Coastal Karnataka and Kolhar in Maharashtra, even as the Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu in India are witnessing fresh build-up.
Pre-monsoon thundershower activity continues to be strong over most parts of the country except Gujarat and West Rajasthan, which alone shows large rain deficits since March 1.
A prevailing western disturbance and an incoming hold sway over North-West India, an array of circulations, troughs and the odd ‘wind discontinuity’ lord it over the rest of the country.
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