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The India Met Department (IMD) has upgraded the weather watch in the East-Central Bay of Bengal to a depression early next week.
The preparatory low-pressure area is expected to materialise within the next two days, or as early as Sunday, October 15.
The prospective depression is expected to move in a north-west direction, putting it on a track towards the East Coast of India, unless it changes course midway.
Depressions/cyclones are known to change course depending on fluctuations in ambient conditions over sea, atmosphere or land.
Early forecasts by almost all global models available on Friday, including by IMD, did not show any change in the track as the system negotiated the Bay of Bengal waters.
They also said that the system would start intensifying only after a peer storm/typhoon in South-West China Sea makes crosses Vietnam coast by Tuesday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said the Bay system may not grow beyond depression strength while crossing the Odisha coast by Thursday.
Wind-field projections by IMD said that it would indeed intensify as a tropical cyclone looking to hit North Andhra Pradesh-South Odisha coast by Thursday.
This would be the second time during the last six to seven days that stormy conditions would develop over the warm Bay waters in the post-monsoon phase.
A deep depression had crossed the Bengal coast on Monday last, bringing heavy to very rain over East India and parts of Central, West and Peninsular India.
The monsoon transition months of May-June and October-November are known to be the most fertile months for cyclone-rearing in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
An analysis of the frequencies of cyclones on the East and West coasts of India during 1891-2000 show that nearly 308 cyclones (out of which 103 were severe cyclones) affected the East Coast.
Out of the cyclones that develop in the Bay of Bengal, over 58 per cent approach and cross the East Coast in October and November. Only 25 per cent of the cyclones that develop over the Arabian Sea approach the West Coast.
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