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Severe cyclone Mocha over South-East and adjoining Central Bay of Bengal has intensified into a very severe cyclone over Central and adjoining South-East Bay about 520 km West-North-West of Port Blair; 1,010 km South-South-West of Cox’s Bazar; and 930 km South-South-West of Sittwe (Myanmar).
It is likely to move North-North-East and intensify further over East-Central Bay of Bengal and cross South-East Bangladesh and North Myanmar coasts close to Sittwe around Sunday noon as a very severe cyclone with maximum sustained wind speeds of 150-160 km/hr gusting to 175 km/hr.
Begins turn, says US agency
US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said Mocha has begun its turn and is forecast to continue tracking toward the North-East with the overall environment becoming increasingly favourable for continued intensification.
The low vertical wind shear that ensures sustained stable winds, warm sea surface temperatures, and good outflow on the top of the storm tower will allow rapid intensification.
The Typhoon Warning Centre raised the peak intensity to 222 km/hr (near-super cyclone) over the next two days, given much of the guidance suggesting likelihood of a period of rapid intensification, which may already be underway.
The only potential limiting factor is a sliver of cooler sea surface temperatures (28℃) and lower ocean heat content just offshore of Myanmar.
Peak storm intensity
Elsewhere, over Central and East-Central Bay, sea surface temperatures are much higher at 31℃ (this) Friday morning.
According to the US tracker, Mocha will attain peak intensity just a few hours prior to landfall, which happens around Sunday noon. After landfall, rapid dissipation is expected as the very severe cyclone interacts with the rugged terrain of Myanmar.
businessline had earlier quoted a few of the global weather tracking agencies going on record the storm may well attain the strength of a class-topping category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity.
Even the IMD has hinted there is scope for further intensification of the system before landfall, as against its original outlook for slight weakening off Myanmar. The US agency too says cooler waters just off Myanmar may not be enough to slow down the storm significantly.
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