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The monsoon has revived over Kerala and Karnataka in the first organised pulse after its onset on June 1 even as it readies to march into parts of North-West India from Central India, where it had dropped anchor after a steady run-in from the Bay of Bengal earlier last week.
The 24 hours ending Monday morning brought heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch (thanks to a nearby circulation), Odisha, and Kerala, while it was heavy at isolated places over Chhattisgarh, West Bengal and Sikkim, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
Monsoon fury over Kerala
In the South, the monsoon unleashed its fury along the Kerala coast during this period dumping heavy to very rainfall. Some of the significant rainfall amounts recorded during this period are (in cm): Vatakara-25; Mahe-17; Kannur-18; Kozhikode-7; and Kottayam-6 as early as from Sunday afternoon.
The wet to heavily wet session is forecast to continue with varying intensity till June 26, the IMD outlook said. An extended outlook from June 27-29 said that fairly widespread to widespread rain or thundershowers may continue to lash Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep.
Over Central India, North-West India and East India, the monsoon is being facilitated by a trough (an elongated area of lower pressure), typical of the season and running in from North Punjab to the North-West Bay of Bengal. But its eastern end may shift northward from in the next 2-3 days (from Thursday).
Normal trough alignment
The normal alignment for the trough to ensure a smooth progress of the monsoon is from West Rajasthan across the Gangetic plains into the Bay of Bengal. When its eastern end thus dips into the Bay, it normally scoops up a low-pressure area that is allowed to roll along the trough into North-West India.
But this is not likely the case, as signalled by the IMD, when it says that the eastern end would move northward (likely inland), cutting off the umbilical cord with the Bay and denying time and space for the low to prosper on live moisture feed from the water surface and sustain a low-pressure area.
Instead, a pre-existing cyclonic circulation over North Interior Odisha is likely to double up as the prime mover of the monsoon over the plains over the next three days, the IMD said. The trough and the circulation would combine to drive the rains into the farming heartland of Central and North-West India.
Heavy over East, North-East
The monsoon will inch its way into more parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand by Tuesday and cover the hills, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, most parts of Punjab, entire Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan by Thursday.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast to continue over the North-East and adjoining East India during the next 4-5 days. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is also likely over the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim on Thursday and over Assam & Meghalaya on Thursday and Friday.
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