Monsoon deficit touches 12% as rains dry up

The overall rain deficit for the country touched 12 per cent on Wednesday to match the quantum forecast for the entire monsoon this year by India Met Department.

With exactly 35 days to go before the monsoon signs off from entire landmass, there are no signs of a major reversal of the trend, given that it starts withdrawing from Northwest India from September 1.

Indications are that the stage may have been already set for the withdrawal with rains keeping off over most parts of Rajasthan and neighbourhood for sometime now.

On Tuesday, individual deficits in four main geographical regions were 20 per cent in South Peninsula; 14 per cent in Central India; 7 per cent in East and North-East India; and 5 per cent in North-West India.

A low-pressure area has formed over west-central Bay of Bengal on Wednesday, which will be closely tracked over the next few days for its capacity to generate rainfall over land.

An India Met outlook valid for next seven days (until September 2) said that rains may lash East and North-East India, adjoining Central India as well as parts of the West Coast.

Opposing dry north-westerly winds dictating prevailing weak monsoon conditions would not allow the ‘low’ to settle and decide a track of its own to push rain deep into north or north-west India.

Instead, it will be guided towards the South Odisha-North Coastal Andhra Pradesh coast from where it will be driven straight into the foothills of Eastern Himalayas (hills of Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh).

On rebound, it will come under the influence of the north-westerlies for a second time and be pushed back towards into the Bay to the north of its place origin.

The south-easterly to southerly winds associated with the system will mop up a lot of moisture from the Bay and blow it into the hills to trigger localised heavy rain over the region, floods or even landslides.

Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Centre said that most parts of north-west India and some parts of Central India will continue to run dry until September 7.

The withdrawal of the monsoon from Rajasthan and adjoining north-west India would likely have begun in right earnest during this phase.

Parts of West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Gujarat are expected to get some passing showers as will southern parts of the West Coast.

According to the US centre’s prediction, below-normal rainfall is the outlook for the northern stretch of the West Coast, including Konkan-Mumbai. Northern parts of Kerala and Coastal and South Tamil Nadu may also benefit to some extent.

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