The low-pressure system in the central parts of Arabian Sea and adjoining south Arabian Sea has already become ‘marked,’ representing one round of intensification.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) expected it to churn further and become a monsoon depression by tomorrow.

This goes on to prove right a forecast almost a month ago made by a US agency about the possibility of a tropical storm (‘depression’ by IMD classification) brewing in the Arabian Sea.

But no model forecast sees its further intensification into a tropical cyclone, given the elongated structure of the circulation centre and lack of cohesion needed to fire up the system further.

Also, it is already situated in the central Arabia Sea, more than half way into its predicted landfall location over the Oman/Yemen coast, which denies it the elbowroom to rustle up strength.

However, a number of other models see yet another storm building in Arabian Sea by November 1, and getting an early bird advantage thanks to its formation coordinates close to the Kerala coast.

The easterlies associated with the northeast monsoon will take slowly into the outer Arabian Sea, where it is forecast to get the time and space to grow as a powerful storm.

After prowling the high seas during the first few days of the week, the system is shown by US agencies as taking an aim towards the Somali coast, as per latest forecasts available.

Interestingly, another global model sees the possibility of a counterpart storm building almost simultaneously in the Bay of Bengal towards the southeast, just off Sumatra.

The easterlies are predicted to push the system in a west-northwest direction and lob it into the southwest Bay, off Sri Lanka and southeast Tamil Nadu. But no further track for movement was available till this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the IMD said that the trough of low extending from southwest Bay of Bengal to west-central Bay of Bengal persisted.

A warning valid for Sunday and Monday said that heavy rainfall would break out at one or two places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

Towards the northwest of the country, a western disturbance persisted over north Pakistan and would affect western Himalayan region until Tuesday.

An extended outlook valid until Thursday said that rain or thundershowers would occur at many places over extreme south peninsular India.

Rain or snow would continue to occur at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir and at one or two places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

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