Agri Business

Monsoon ends at par, brightens rabi crop outlook

VINSON KURIAN VISHWANATH KULKARNI Bengaluru/Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on January 16, 2018



85 % of the country has received normal to excess rains; rabi planting to commence soon

After two consecutive years of drought, the South-West Monsoon delivered a near normal rainfall in the 2016 season, which ended on Friday.

Indeed, the delayed withdrawal across most parts of the country is seen to be brightening the prospects for the rabi or winter crops, for which planting will soon commence.

Well spread

Though the cumulative actual precipitation fell short of the Met Department’s forecast, the widespread rains across the country, except parts of the Peninsula, East, North-East and North-West India, are seen helping the country produce a record foodgrain harvest of 135 million tonnes in the current kharif season.

About 85 per cent of the country’s geographical area has received normal to excess rains this monsoon, while the rest, encompassing some nine meteorological subdivisions, has received deficient rains.

The rain deficiency was more pronounced in East and North East India (-11 per cent), followed by the Peninsula (-8 per cent) and North West India (-5 per cent).

Only Central India had a cumulative surplus of 6 per cent.

Kerala, which had a rainfall deficit of 34 per cent, topped the list of rain-deficient metrological sub-divisions, followed by Assam (-30 per cent), Punjab (-28 per cent), Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi (-27 per cent), Lakshadweep (-25 per cent), Gujarat (-24 per cent), Coastal Karnataka (-21 per cent), South Interior Karnataka (-21 per cent) and Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry (-19 per cent).

Meanwhile, a weather outlook for the first two weeks into October indicates above-normal rainfall for Central India and comparatively active rainfall for the eastern parts of Central India.

The outlook issued jointly by the IMD, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, and the Central Research Institue for Dryland Agriculture was as follows: During the first week (September 30-October 6), a cyclonic circulation will generate above-normal rainfall over most parts of central India and ‘comparatively active rain’ over its eastern parts.

Rain forecast

During the second week, rainfall is expected to be above normal mainly over the north-east.

The location-wise forecast said that normal or above normal rainfall is likely during the next fortnight over east Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Bengal, Sikkim, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, west Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, coastal Karnataka and north interior Karnataka.

Normal or above normal rainfall has been forecast during this period over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, east Uttar Pradesh, west Rajasthan, Bihar and Tamil Nadu.

Below normal rainfall is likely to occur during the next two weeks over Kerala.

Published on September 30, 2016

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