Agri Business

Monsoon enters Gujarat and Mumbai in overnight push

Vinson Kurian THIRUVANANTHAPURAM | Updated on June 25, 2019 Published on June 25, 2019

Delayed by almost a fortnight, the monsoon marched into South Gujarat and Mumbai this (Tuesday) morning in an overnight push from Alibagh, a major 'waypoint' on its track on the West Coast.

Its northern limit linked Veraval in Gujarat and extended into the East and North-West connecting Surat, Indore, Mandla, Pendra, Sultanpur, Lakhimpur Kheri and Mukteshwar

'LOW' IN FIVE DAYS

It cuts through the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, representing an impressive South-West to North-West arc, but delayed variously by a week to fortnight.

Significantly, the India Met Department (IMD) said a second, keenly awaited low-pressure area is likely to form over the North Bay of Bengal and its neighbourhood five days from now (by June 30).

The 'low' would be a slow-moving one, taking its own time to cross the Bengal coast, before delving into East India and adjoining Central India, generating a good amount of rainfall along the way.

Wind-field projections suggest it could intensify into a depression over land and revive the fortunes of the monsoon yet again over Central India and parts of North-West India during the first week of July.

In this connection, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services has signalled the likely formation of storms, not just in the Bay but also to the East of the Philippines.

These systems may lie separated quite some distance apart, but are expected to have some bearing on the progress of the monsoon since they both thrive on moisture sourced from the same flows.

'CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE'

But, thankfully, the developing system in the Bay is shown as intensifying faster than the one in the Philippines seas, giving it an early bird advantage with respect to substantial access to the flows.

For another, the latter is shown tracking towards Hanoi (Vietnam) in the North-West, rather than East-North-East and the Northern Pacific, which would have not been ideal for the monsoon here.

The US agency said there is 'moderate' confidence in storm formation in the Bay. One model shows enhanced rainfall over the region even without an intense 'low,' while others insist on a depression taking shape here.

It also observed that the persistent easterlies that delayed the monsoon have been replaced with friendly, though weak westerly winds.

"Conditions are looking more supportive of the monsoon for South India during the ongoing week while still being delayed over Central and North India, leading to another week of above normal temperatures."

Models indicate some disagreement on how far the advancement will be from this week. The Climate Forecast System indicated continued below normal rainfall for the northern half of India during June 26 to July 2, while the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates near-normal rain.

Published on June 25, 2019
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