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Hopes of India receiving a normal monsoon this year is intact with weathermen predicting normal rainfall during rest of the season as the shortfall shrank to 1 per cent during the first half ended on July 31.
The country, as a whole, could receive 95-105 per cent of the long period average (LPA) for August and September, while in the agriculturally important month of August, the rainfall would be 94-106 per cent of the normal range, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a media briefing here on Monday. The LPA for August-September period is 428.3 millimetres (mm), while in August, it is 258.1 mm.
During June-July, the country received 449 mm rainfall against the normal of 452.2 mm, said IMD Director-General (Meteorology) M Mohapatra.
Picking momentum
In the current month, IMD forecast below-to-normal rainfall in many areas of central and some areas of north-west India, while the rainfall is projected to be normal-to-above normal over most parts of peninsular and north-east India.
The break in the monsoon between June 21 and July 7, resulted in deficient rains in many parts of the country, but the monsoon picked up momentum subsequently to cover up the shortfall. The rainfall has been particularly above normal from July 19, Mohapatra said. Till date, three agro-meteorological divisions received large excess rainfall, nine divisions excess, normal in 11 and deficient rainfall in 13 divisions, showed data presented by the IMD D-G. The rainfall in July was 266 mm against the normal of 285.3 mm, he said.
La Nina to re-emerge?
Currently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean signal neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. However, the SSTs over central and east equatorial Pacific Ocean are showing cooling tendency. This has prompted IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System model and other global models to forecast continuation of neutral ENSO conditions during the remaining part of the monsoon season and increased possibility of re-emergence of the La Nina conditions in the end of the monsoon season or thereafter
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