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India Meteorological Department (IMD) is scheduled to unveil its long-range forecast for this year's southwest monsoon in New Delhi on Tuesday.
The forecast is made in two stages in April and in June. Forecast for the season as a whole (June-September) is issued in the first stage.
SACOF CONSENSUS
The same will be released formally by the Union Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, Science and Technology and Earth Sciences, Mr Pawan Kumar Bansal.
Meanwhile, a consensus statement by a meeting of the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum (SACOF) held in Pune said that South Asia region (of which India is a part) is likely to receive normal monsoon rains in 2011.
It based its forecast mainly in the assessment that the monsoon-friendly La Nina weather phenomenon would continue until June.
In a carefully-worded statement, the SACOF said ‘the large-scale summer monsoon rainfall' would most likely be within the normal range.”
CRUCIAL PATTERN
What was missing here was comment on the crucial pattern of intra-seasonal rainfall or the spatial and temporal distribution of rains over the landmass.
But some global models have already come out with a forecast suggesting below-normal rainfall in east-central India and southern parts of the northeast.
There has also been conflicting arguments on the pattern of rainfall for peninsular India, especially given the near-consensus estimate of a milder summer.
The same true holds for large parts of the rest of India as well with maximum mercury level fighting well shy of 45 deg Celsius just yet.
Global models, however, see the temperature maxima raising the bar over western India sooner than later.
PRE-MONSOON SHOWERS
This is a crucial enabler for the seasonal heat ‘low' to build over north India, to get the southwesterly winds to blow in and set up normal monsoonal flows.
Meanwhile, satellite pictures on Sunday afternoon showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of western Himalayan region, Punjab, Haryana, Orissa, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, southeast Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea.
A weather-driving western disturbance has crossed over the northwest border and lay straddled over Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan.
The system would affect western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India until Wednesday.
An upper air cyclonic circulation that the system induced, too, persisted over central parts of Rajasthan.
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