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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the 2021 monsoon season should end ‘around the lower end of the normal’, thanks to an expected surge this month (September, the last of the season), which is forecast to deliver 110 per cent-plus above the Long-Period Average (LPA).
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD, said in New Delhi that the LPA of rainfall during September based on the data of 1961-2010 is about 170 mm. Considering the expected above normal rainfall activity, the current deficit of nine per cent is likely to reduce.
Major August deficit
The monsoon was mainly done in by an unexpectedly huge deficit of 24.1 per cent in rainfall during August, normally the second rainiest after July of the four monsoon months. Mostly, August rain deficits are associated with El Nino and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events (nine out of 15 years).
“We may not have an El Nino in the tropical Pacific, but latest global model forecasts indicate that the prevailing ‘cool neutral’ (neither El Nino La Nina with a bias towards the latter) conditions are likely to continue as would the negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean, during September.”
La Nina may re-emerge
However, sea-surface temperatures over Central and East Equatorial Pacific Ocean are showing cooling tendency and there is an increased possibility of re-emergence of the La Nina condition at the end of the monsoon season or thereafter, Mohapatra said, in terms of the short to medium-term outlook.
“As the sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon, the IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins during the rest of the year as well.
The forecast for September suggests that above normal to normal rainfall is likely over many areas of Central India. Normal to below normal rainfall is most likely over many areas of North-West and North-East India and southern most parts of Peninsular India (parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu).
Above normal rain until November
BusinessLine had reported two days ago that the South-West monsoon is expected to be normal in September, while the country is forecast to get above-normal rainfall during September-November this year, quoting DS Pai, Head - Climate Research and Services, at IMD, Pune.
“Over the last 10-11 years we have received good rainfall during September. Rainfall even during September-November has been good. Better days are ahead,” he said while addressing a webinar on Kharif sowing overview.
Rainfall would very likely be near normal in the first week of September and normal to above normal during the second week over Central and adjoining North-West and North Peninsular India; near normal over most parts of East and North-East and below normal over most parts of Peninsular India.
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