Monsoon may reach Myanmar earlier than normal this year

The 2022 monsoon is expected to reach Myanmar at its southern point between May 8 and 13 (normal onset date is May 18), helped in by the formation of low-pressure area over the South Andaman Sea by May 6 and its likely intensification into a depression, an update by the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology said.

India Meteorological Department also has gone on record saying that a ‘low’ could likely form over the South Andaman Sea as early as Wednesday, before it descends to the lower levels to set up the ‘low.’ It is likely become ‘more marked’ (likely to intensify) during the subsequent 24 hours though IMD does not signal formation of a depression just yet.

High winds, heavy rain

The IMD has warned of heavy rainfall over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands on Thursday and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on Friday. Squally winds may prevail over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining North Andaman Sea and East-Central Bay of Bengal on Wednesday and Thursday.

Winds may speed up to 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph (deep depression, or a minimal cyclone-strength) over the Andaman Sea and the adjoining East-Central and South-East Bay of Bengal on Friday after the system starts to move laterally to the West-North-West, though these are early days to predict with certainty its direction or intensity.

Myanmar, one of the littoral countries of the Bay of Bengal, is the second port of call for the incoming monsoon. The first is Maldives from where there is no official call of onset of the monsoon yet, though the atolls there are witnessing strong monsoon-friendly westerlies to south-westerlies with speeds of 24-37 km/hr gusting to 64 km/hr.

Andamans, Lanka onsets

The Myanmar dynamics too are closely watched for implications for the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, the farthest outpost in India’s territorial waters. This is followed by onsets in almost clock-work precision over Sri Lanka around May 22 and on the Kerala coast along mainland India on June 1. The IMD will come out with onset forecast for Kerala by mid-May.

The Myanmar onset need not result in a correspondingly earlier outcome for Andaman & Nicobar Islands or Sri Lanka since the monsoon has a mind of its own with inherent instabilities that can fail predictions by the most reputed weather/climate models, despite it being among the most tracked and researched seasonal weather/climate systems.

Meanwhile, a consensus statement from the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (Sascof) has predicted normal to above normal for most parts of South Asia (including India) during the 2022 South-West monsoon season (June-September).

Sascof hints at good monsoon

Geographically, above normal rainfall is most likely along the foothills of the Himalayas, many areas in the North-West and and Central parts of the region and some areas in the East and South. But below-normal rainfall is indicated for some areas of the extreme North, North-West, South and South-Eastern parts.

The seasonal rainfall is most likely to be normal over the remaining areas of the region. The IMD had come out with its first long-range forecast of the monsoon with almost similar predictions, projecting a normal monsoon (99 per cent of long-period average) for the country. Private forecaster Skymet Weather has forecast 98 per cent.

Meanwhile on Monday, the IMD said that thunderstorms and gusty winds will blow away a prevailing heat wave over North-West India till Wednesday and over East India and the South Peninsula till Friday, as cooler western disturbances blow in from the international border and the ‘low’ forms in the Bay of Bengal.

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