The monsoon over Central India, North-West India and West India would seek newer peaks with India Met Department (IMD) forecasting formation of back-to-back low-pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal.

The first 'low' is likely to show up over the North Bay over the next couple of days, which could further rev up the rains over Central and adjoining North-West India.

Strong monsoon seen

A second 'low' could spin up four to five days later over the same location, signalling the strength of the monsoon flows, despite enhanced activity over the West Pacific that shares the same flows.

Separately, an ensemble model of the US National Centres for Environment Predictions says that the Bay might remain in a hyperactive state right until the end of July, normally the rainiest monsoon month.

The US model sees westward or west-northwestward movement of rain-generating 'low's/depression from the Bay across Central and North-West India to either Gujarat or Rajasthan.

IMD has already put under watch the first 'low' for signs of intensification soon after its genesis get officially declared either tomorrow or the day after.

Long-period average

An updated long-range forecast by IMD had said that July is likely to produce 101 per cent of the long-period average of rainfall for the month, though it has started off with a slight deficit. June had ended up with a deficit of just five per cent, shrugging off prolonged lean patch between June 12 to 27.

The monsoon has been in a revival mode since June 27. IMD said in bulletin this morning that the ongoing rainfall activity over the South Peninsula and Central India would continue for the next four to five days.

Rains for North-West

Meanwhile, organised rainfall would commence over North-West India from today, with the monsoon trough falling into place well and truly, featuring embedded cyclonic circulations. The activity would scale up in the run-up of formation of the first 'low' over the North Bay. It would continue to anchor the monsoon until the anticipated successor shows up.

An interesting scenario to look forward to is whether the first one lets off steam after this, since no two systems can prosper with the same vigour at a given time except under rare conditions. But what must follow without doubt is the assured intensity of rain activity over Central India, the Peninsula and North-West India over the next four to five days, if not longer.

IMD has, however, said that East and North-East India are likely to witness subdued monsoon during the next three days since a bulk of the rains would happen to either the South or West.

As for today, it has forecast heavy to very heavy rain over Konkan, Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Coastal Karnataka; East Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan and Odisha. It would be heavy over Kerala, North Telangana, Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, East Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Assam, Meghalaya and the North-Eastern States.

comment COMMENT NOW