Agri Business

Monsoon seen reviving in phases from this weekend

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on July 05, 2021

A motorist holds an umbrella to protect himself from the rain as the monsoon rain lashes into the Bhubaneswar city. Photo: The Hindu

Helpful MJO wave seen sparking activity in South

The break in monsoon is expected to continue for another 4-5 days but the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which looks like 'ghost towns' currently, may use this very window to rustle up activity first along the West Coast, followed by the Bay along the East, to bring in rains to Delhi and surrounding region.

This will likely be underwritten by a helpful pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that transits the African coast and sails into the West Indian Ocean and adjoining South Arabian Sea during the latter part of the week (July 4 to 10) triggering a chain of weather activity that may last until July 24.

Monsoon in Delhi by Saturday

The West and East Coasts, Peninsular India and Central India as well as hitherto rain-deficient North-West India may make gains during this period, as per US Climate Forecast System projections. The activity will revert to being normal over Peninsular India from July 25 while holding heavy over North.

Other projections show the monsoon easterlies from the Bay running over the national capital, Chandigarh, Haryana and Punjab variously by Saturday (July 10) though West Rajasthan may have to wait for more. The Bay is seen as being able to break the jinx twice over along the East Coast, per projections.

The Andhra Pradesh coast close to Visakhapatnam and the Kolkata coast may witness some buzz building in the surroundings over the three-four days that follows. Thus, the building activity will bring back the monsoon to Peninsular India and the West Coast, apart from North-West India.

West Rajasthan needs to wait

It is instructive to look at the extended forecast for July 9-11 given out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) here. It sees widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely over of North-East, East and adjoining Central India and along the West Coast as the monsoon revives in phases.

The rainfall will be fairly widespread over Peninsular India and Islands and isolated rainfall over parts of West and North-West India except West Rajasthan where dry weather is likely. The rains may arrive here after the monsoon reverts to its normal position from the Himalayan foothills.

On Sunday, a truncated land-based trough (proxy for the all-important monsoon trough) ran down from East Uttar Pradesh to Nagaland across Bihar, hills of West Bengal and Assam bringing monsoonal rains to those regions. The Bay piped in moist-laden easterly winds into the trough, East and North-East India.

Widespread rain predicted

It will continue to bring fairly widespread rain over Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura for five more days.

The scenario is typical of a break monsoon phase when the rains shut out over the rest of the country.

Isolated thunderstorms/heavy rainfall are forecast over Bihar until Tuesday; over Odisha and plains of West Bengal until Thursday; over Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh on Wednesday and Thursday; over Arunachal Pradesh on Tuesday; and over Assam and Meghalaya on Monday and Wednesday.

Lightning strikes warned of

Isolated thunderstorms/heavy rainfall are forecast for the hills of Bengal and Sikkim on Tuesday and Thursday. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Bihar on Wednesday and Thursday; over Assam and Meghalaya on Tuesday; and over the hills of West Bengal on Wednesday.

The IMD has warned of moderate to severe thunderstorms accompanied by frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes over Bihar, Jharkhand and plains of West Bengal until Monday evening. People have been requested to stay indoors and secure the lives of animals during this phase.

Published on July 05, 2021

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