Agri Business

Monsoon to remain weak till July 1st week

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on June 23, 2021

May pick up intensity from second week

International model forecasts indicate that the monsoon may remain weak along the West Coast and large parts of North-West and Central India during the ongoing week (June 23 to 29).

They do not find a major recovery into the week that follows (the first week of July, normally the rainiest monsoon month).

Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration assessed as “moderate” chances of drier climes prevailing over entire West Coast, Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, parts of East Madhya Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Chandigarh and Uttarakhand until June 29.

Arabian Sea, Bay on ‘mute’mode

Most parts of coastal Arabian Sea (off the West Coast) and the Bay of Bengal (including the Head Bay, North-West Bay, East-Central Bay and South-East Bay) and further extending over Myanmar, parts of South China Sea and West Pacific are likely to remain muted during this period.

With respect to the week that follows (June 30-July 6), the US agency has “high” confidence with respect to similar trends persisting in which dry weather may prevail over Gujarat and the West Coast (down to the Karnataka coast), West Rajasthan, entire Madhya Pradesh, and adjoining East and North-East India.

A 46-day outlook by the European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasts more or less agrees, but points to the possibility of ongoing rains over East and North-East India consolidating further during this week before gathering momentum and extending a limb along the East Coast into Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Back to life in second week

The proceedings will get busier towards the middle of July with easterlies from the Bay of Bengal likely interacting with western disturbances travelling from North-West India towards East India to trigger a wall of rain along the East Coast and into Central India. The West Coast may also get active around this time.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, localised monsoonal easterly and south-easterly winds and a trough in westerlies from the opposite side are interacting promising fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over Odisha, West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Bihar during the next five days.

Heavy rain over East India

Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Odisha and the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim during this period; over Chhattisgarh until Friday; and over Bihar on Saturday and Sunday. Isolated very heavy rainfall is also likely over Odisha on Friday.

In the same manner, strengthening of moist south-westerly winds from the Bay heading to the opposite direction will bring fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over North-East India during next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast over Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura, Mizoram.

Published on June 23, 2021

Follow us on Telegram, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube and Linkedin. You can also download our Android App or IOS App.

This article is closed for comments.
Please Email the Editor