Global dynamical weather models continue to favour the eastward propagation of a moisture, cloud and rain-generating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave across the Indian Ocean this week with an intensity that ranges between moderate and strong, to favourably impact the ongoing monsoon.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already predicted a fresh pulse of the monsoon in the next couple of days with a spurt of rain along the South-West coast and adjoining South Peninsula. This is even as the monsoon trough over land across the plains of North India shifts further North.

Normal rain during rest of monsoon season: IMD

This will bring about a situation in which the monsoon sets up a splash to the extreme North and South while West and Central India would mostly sit out of the session. This (Monday) morning, the eastern end of the monsoon trough has already shifted North (Arunachal Pradesh) towards the foothills.

But the western end remains anchored to its usual position over West Rajasthan and will stay as such until tomorrow (Tuesday). This would mean that the western parts of North-West India will continue to witness widespread to fairly widespread rainfall just as those of North-East India, the IMD said.

High-intensity rain for East

The outlook for the next five days suggests widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls over North-East India, plains of West Bengal and Sikkim. Stronger south-westerly/southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal will cause rainfall intensity to build further over these areas from Wednesday (August 11).

Rain deficit at 1% as twin ‘lows’ rev up monsoon in North; South under lean patch

Fairly widespread/widespread rainfall is forecast over Uttarakhand, northern parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and the plains of West Bengal during the next 4-5 days. Fairly widespread/widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan until tomorrow.

The rainfall intensity and distribution will reduce later the as the western end of the monsoon trough too shifts bearing to the North. Subdued rainfall may prevail over Peninsular India, including Maharashtra and Gujarat State, excluding Kerala, Mahe and Tamil Nadu where isolated heavy falls are forecast during the next 4-5 days as the incoming MJO brings with it moisture, clouds and rainfall.

Independence Day outlook

An extended outlook during August 14-16 (including Independence Day) predicted normal monsoon conditions over North-East and East India and along the foothills and parts of South Peninsular India while weak monsoon conditions may prevail over the rest parts of the country.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over North-East India, East India, northern parts of Uttar Pradesh, along the West Coast and parts of South Peninsular India. Isolated heavy falls may continue over the North-East while it would be isolated to scattered elsewhere except over Rajasthan.

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