Agri Business

Monsoon withdrawal may run into rain wall over East

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on September 22, 2020 Published on September 22, 2020

Heavy rain lashed Thiruvananthapuram on Monday   -  S Manisha

Dry anticyclone, Bay low seen battling it out

The monsoon-driving low-pressure area has washed over land and was located this (Tuesday) morning interior Odisha. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the system to track West-North-West into Central and adjoining North-West India during the next two days.


The low would toy with the building anticyclone over North-West India heralding dryness and later winter, but associated westerlies-north-westerlies from the former would chase the low back to East India before being forced to slip back into the Bay, IMD projections reveal.

Battle for the long-haul

The battle between the anticyclone and the low would see dryness expand over North-West India but a rainy regime offering resistance over the rest of the country even as the low threatens to reorganise and shows itself up along the Odisha coast by October 3, three days after the South-West monsoon normally draws to a close.

Extended IMD outlook for September 27-29 sees widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over North-East and adjoining East India. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Peninsular India, the West Coast and over the Islands, probably indicating how monsoon withdrawal could run into a rain wall.

In its outlook based on Tuesday, the IMD said he prevailing low over interior Odisha would sustain the fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Coastal and North Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Odisha, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and Jharkhand until Wednesday.

Fairly widespread rain seen

As the low retreats back to the East, East Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are expected to come under fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls, between Tuesday and Thursday. It could likely extend further to Bihar and West Bengal in later stages.

Isolated extremely heavy rainfall has been warned of over Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and hills of West Bengal and Sikkim today (Tuesday); East Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday; and over Assam and Meghalaya both today and tomorrow (Tuesday and Wednesday).

Heavy rain, high winds

Outlook for Tuesday also suggests heavy to very heavy rainfall over West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Gujarat, and Coastal Karnataka; heavy over Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, plains of West Bengal, North Interior Karnataka, Kerala and North-East India.

Strong wind speeding to 45-55 km/hr may prevail along the Gulf of Mannar and along and off Kerala-Karnataka-Goa coasts and Lakshadweep area; and wind speeds of 50-60 km/hr) along and off Maharashtra, West Bengal & Odisha coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

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Published on September 22, 2020
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