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The monsoon withdrawal line continues to pass through Bikaner, Jodhpur, Jalore and Bhuj even as conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal is expected from more parts of Gujarat, entire Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during next 2-3 days.
But this process has run into resistance from cyclonic circulations and other rain-generating features prevailing over both the land and surrounding seas on Friday morning, as an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update indicates.
Resistance from land, seas
A potent circulation lies over the East-Central Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast, which the IMD expects to persist during next 4-5 days with a slight northward movement. A trough (of low pressure) runs from this cyclonic circulation to the West-Central Bay of Bengal across South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Andhra Pradesh.
This 'low' is disrupting the pattern of post-monsoonal flows directed from the Arabian Gulf that help build the anticyclone (high-pressure and dryness) over North-West India.
Light to moderate rainfall is forecast at many places with isolated heavy falls over Maharashtra, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka during the next five days and over Tamil Nadu on Sunday and over South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema today (Friday).
Low-pressure area in Bay
The IMD has also maintained the outlook for a low-pressure are likely forming over the North Andaman Sea by Sunday, which it says has prospects of intensification into a storm and a movement towards South Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh coast during the subsequent 4-5 days. It also coincides with the normal timeline for the onset of the North-East monsoon over the South Peninsula.
Light to moderate rainfall has been forecast at many places over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, with isolated heavy falls during the next five days starting today (Friday).
Extended rain outlook
An extended outlook from October 13 to 15 said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over the Islands, Peninsular India and along the West Coast. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Odisha, West Bengal, Sikkim, South Gujarat and North-East India.
A detailed outlook for today (Friday) said that Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, while it will be heavy at isolated places over Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe.
Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning may line up over the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, Odisha, South Chhattisgarh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu,Puducherry and Karaikal.
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