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The North-East monsoon has been active over Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the 24 hours ending on Monday morning thanks mainly to the presence of a remnant cyclonic circulation from erstwhile cyclone ‘Kyant.’
This circulation had crossed the Chennai coast through Sunday, drilled its way into the interior and found a perch over interior Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala and South Interior Karnataka by Monday afternoon.
Heavy rainIt managed to pull in wet, south westerly flows from the Arabian Sea that brought rain, heavy to very heavy in some cases, for most parts of Kerala and many places of Tamil Nadu overnight on Monday.
The centres receiving rainfall of five cm and above in Tamil Nadu were: Udumalpet and Vadipatti-12 cm; Pollachi-11; Pechiparai-10; Tirumayam-8; Tirupathur and Peelamedu-7 each; Tirupur, Sendurai, Maniyachi, Avinasi, Arimalam, and Karaikudi-6 each, Natham, Sholavandan, Chatrapatti, Periyanaickenpalayam and and Palani-5 cm each.
In Kerala, Punalur received 9 cm; Peringammala-8; Ottappalam and Konni-7 each; Thodupuzha-6; Mancompu, Karipur, Alathur, Kollengode and Erimayur-5 cm each.
Fresh ‘low’An India Met Department (IMD) outlook for the rest of Monday had spoke about the possibility of heavy to very heavy rain at one or two places over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and south interior Karnataka.
As for Tuesday, the forecast hints at heavy to very heavy rain at one or two places over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Heavy rain is also likely at one or two places over Lakshadweep area.
On Wednesday, the heavy rain belt would move to Lakshadweep along with the cyclonic circulation. An US National Centre for Environmental Prediction update the said the system may already have moved out in this manner.
Meanwhile, the IMD has maintained its watch for a fresh low-pressure area forming in the South-east Bay of Bengal by Tuesday (tomorrow, November 1).
Cyclone watchOn Monday, the IMD has not explicitly said anything more about the system behaviour; but had in its advance weather forecast issued last week hinted that the ‘low’ would intensify in strength.
Its Numerical Weather Prediction model outlook favours the strengthening of the system into a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal over the next two to three days and likely movement towards India’s East Coast.
Most international weather models, except the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, concur with this forecast. The European Centre is of the view that the system may fail to reach cyclone strength.
The projected area of landfall of the system ranged from just North of Chennai to Andhra Pradesh to even adjoining Odisha coast over the weekend.
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