New ‘low’ may form in Bay of Bengal in next 3-4 days: Met Department

India Met Department (IMD) has officially declared a lookout for a fresh low-pressure area developing in the Bay of Bengal during the next 3-4 days, substantiating predictions already made by various agencies to the effect.

A preparatory circulation has already formed over South-East Bay and adjoining Andaman Sea. The ‘low’ will prospectively build on this base at a location a little further to the west over East-Central Bay by midweek next week.

Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Bay are just right for hosting a low and more advanced weather systems. Given the monsoon transition period (from South-West to North-East), the atmosphere above, too, is known to be suitably supportive.

An INSAT-3D satellite picture of the Bay waters showed that the SSTs ranged from 29 deg Celsius near the Andaman Sea to 30 deg Celsius, and above over Central Bay of Bengal and adjoining waters off the Andhra Pradesh coast.

Since lows are known to seek out warmer waters to build in strength, the current system should in all probability choose this track for onward movement.

Since the upper atmosphere conditions are expected to become conducive for the growth of the low, the IMD wind-field maps are projecting its calibrated development over the warm central and west-central Bay waters.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a likely depression in the offing and poised for a landfall over the North Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Odisha coasts by Wednesday/Thursday.

Early IMD projections favour the formation of a deep depression or a cyclone that aims to hit Coastal Andhra Pradesh around the same timeline projected by the European centre.

But these are early days still to make a definite call, except saying that stormy conditions are likely developing over the Central Bay, after its northern fringes were churned up by a deep depression a couple of days ago. That deep depression has steadily weakened and was located on Wednesday as a lowly circulation over Jharkhand and adjoining Bengal. It was still able to bring heavy to very heavy rain overnight over Bihar, Jharkhand, and Bengal.

Heavy rain was reported from Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Bengal, Interior Karnataka, Telangana, Rayalaseema, Marathawada, Konkan & Goa until Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, the withdrawal of the south-west monsoon from North-West India resumed in line with the sustained weakening of the deep depression. Heavy rains caused by it had held up the withdrawal process for some time now.

The Met said that favourable conditions are developing for further withdrawal of the monsoon from more parts of North, Central and West India during the next four to five days.

But the brewing ‘low’ may come yet again in its way as the withdrawal line reaches Central India. The upshot is that the easterly winds associated with the system could expedite the withdrawal process once the rains dry up over the South Peninsula.

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