India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated the possibility of an increase in rainfall activity likely over parts of the South Peninsula in another five days (from November 21, Monday next) in the context of a likely depression forming over the South Bay of Bengal on Wednesday and approaching the coast. 

High winds, rough seas

In a weather outlook for the previous day (Sunday), the IMD said heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal. Squally winds with speeds reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph have been warned over the West-Central and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal (away from the Andhra Pradesh-North Tamil Nadu coasts) and with speeds 40-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph over the South-West and adjoining South-East Bay, as well as along the Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas on Sunday. 

Rainfall prospects vary

The US National Centres for Environmental Predictions, however, do not see much purchase for the South Peninsula from the depression except for parts of the North Coastal Tamil Nadu, including Chennai, and adjoining South Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the week starting today and ending on November 24. Rainfall will be normal to below normal for the rest of the Tamil Nadu coast and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Interior Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka, and Kerala. 

Normal so far for South Peninsula

The South Peninsula has received above-normal rainfall during the season until yesterday (October 1-November 15), though it forfeited almost the entire month of October, thanks to the late arrival of the season (on October 29). Kerala, Mahe, and Lakshadweep are in deficit to the extent of -19 per cent but will not be called out since rainfall is considered normal until the deficit figure reaches -20 per cent. So, these meteorological subdivisions are currently teetering on the edge. The season has been a surplus for both South Interior Karnataka (+42 per cent) and North Interior Karnataka (+37 per cent). 

Above normal for Tamil Nadu

But Coastal Karnataka lying adjacent to Kerala has recorded the largest deficit at -32 per cent. Tamil Nadu has managed to hold on its own by recording above-normal rainfall of +17 per cent. Rayalaseema has returned to normal rainfall (+4 per cent), followed by Telangana (+1 per cent). Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam too are in the normal category (-2 per cent). It remains to be seen how the incoming depression delivers in terms of rainfall for entire South Peninsula during the next week.