Comments
Agency reports have quoted a top India Meteorological Department (IMD) official as saying that the country would likely have a normal monsoon this year.
This goes to corroborate an earlier report on February 23 in these columns giving an exactly similar ‘advance take’ on 2011 monsoon.
The report had based the outlook on model runs by renowned agencies such as the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; the UK Met Office; and the Tokyo Climate Centre as well as the Regional Institute for Global Change under the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.
Some of them had even ventured to give out a normal to above normal rainfall during the impending monsoon attributing the same to a live but shrinking La Nina phenomenon in the equatorial and east Pacific.
Marked by intense cooling of the east Pacific and a corresponding warming to the west, La Nina has tended to benefit a concurrent Indian monsoon without direct-cause-effect relationship.
El Nino, the exact reverse of La Nina, has co-existed with some of the worst droughts in India - as was the case in 2009 - but with honourable exceptions though.
A truncated (25 per cent) La Nina existing this year is enough to hold fort in the east Pacific and keep at bay any early transition into an El Nino. This could keep India monsoon largely in shape.
This is what led global models to deduce that India ‘might just be looking at enhanced probabilities for normal to slightly above normal rainfall during both the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.’
These, according to them, are early indicators subject to updates on a month-to-month basis and needed to be viewed with caution.
The hyper-active equatorial Pacific is now expected to relapse into what is said to be ‘neutral’ conditions (neither La Nina nor contra-indicative El Nino) to coincide with the Indian monsoon.
Global models differed in their interpretation of the spatial distribution of the impending rainfall.
Some of them indicate southern peninsula may witness some deficiency because of anticipated above-normal pre-monsoon (March-April-May) showers and incidental cooling of the landmass.
Some others see the regional deficit panning out in a pattern reminiscent of the season before (2010 monsoon) that saw east, east-central and northeast India bearing the brunt of the deficit.
A third opinion looked to the usual suspect, northwest India, to throw up a deficit but without attributing any specific reason.
Comments
COMMENT NOW
Comments
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.