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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the North-East monsoon rains have commenced over extreme South Peninsular India after predecessor South-West monsoon exited the entire country and was replaced with north-easterly winds over the South Peninsula.
A cyclonic circulation lies over South-West Bay of Bengal off the North Tamil Nadu coast, which is expected to cause scattered rainfall with moderate thunderstorm and lightning over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next five days. Isolated heavy falls are forecast over South Tamil Nadu during the next two days and over adjoining South Kerala until tomorrow (Thursday).
Arrives a week late
Dry weather expected over rest of the country during the next 4-5 days, the IMD said. The North-East monsoon has arrived late by at least a week thanks to the extended play of the South-West monsoon supported by rogue circulations-turned-depressions in the Bay of Bengal.
Private forecaster Skymet Weather said yesterday (Tuesday) that tropical Storm 'Saudel' in upstream South China would continue to move in West-North-West and across Vietnam and Thailand. After making landfall over Vietnam, it will start weakening and will emerge in the Bay of Bengal as a low-pressure area by Thursday/Friday, the third this month.
In fact, satellite pictures revealed this (Wednesday) noon that 'Saudel' may be in the process of crossing the Vietnamese coast between Da Nang in the North and Quang Ngai in the South. It is expected to track across Thailand and Myanmar before entering the Bay of Bengal as a cyclonic circulation initially.
South China Sea storm
It may intensify into a low-pressure area and later into being 'well-marked' and will move initially in West-North-West direction across the central parts of the Bay towards the North Andhra and Odisha coasts. Later, it may re-curve to the North-North-East and North-East towards Bangladesh.
The month of October is one of the favourable months for cyclogenesis (birth of cyclones) in the Indian Ocean, Skymet Weather said. But this year, it has remained comparatively calm as there was no cyclone formation in the Bay or the Arabian Sea.
Instead, two low-pressure areas had formed in the Bay. The first one intensified into a deep depression (next only in rank to a cyclone) and moved across the central parts of the country and re-emerged as the low-pressure area over the North-East Arabian Sea. The second low-pressure area intensified into a depression and moved toward the plains of West Bengal and Bangladesh.
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