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The India Met Department (IMD) has said that conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of the South-West monsoon from the entire country by October 20, thus setting the stage for the onset of the North-East monsoon.
Both these events had earlier showed signs unfolding simultaneously a week ago, but was usurped by the very severe cyclone ‘Titli’ in the Bay of Bengal.
The withdrawal line had advanced into Peninsular India but has been held back for about a week at an alignment that passes through Machilipatnam, Kurnool, Gadag and Vengurla.
Low-pressure area
On Wednesday, the IMD also announced that a low-pressure area may form over the North Andaman Sea and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal around October 23, again a likelihood cited by global models earlier.
This could develop into a storm which, some models say, could be headed towards Tamil Nadu-Sri Lanka coasts, while a few others put it on a track heading North towards East India.
The US National Weather Services indicated that the system may head south-south-westwards aiming to hit the Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts over the next eight to 10 days.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts showed the system as posing off the coast of Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh by October 26.
Likely storm track
The IMD has said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated intense activity could break out over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands from October 22 to 24 even as the ‘low’ brews far out into the East. Meanwhile, the IMD said that the ongoing enhanced rainfall activity over the peninsula is likely to continue for another couple of days before becoming better organised.
Rains forecast
Among the stations recording significant rainfall (in cm) were: Ponnani: 16; Piravom: 13; Kuppadi: 10; Kalaburagi: 8; Sholapur, Vengurla, Kannur, Kochi and Kottayam: 6 each; and Honnavar, Agathi, Karipur, Thiruvananthapuram and Tondi: 5 each.
Rain or thundershowers lashed most places over Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep; at many places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places over South Konkan, Goa, Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh; and at isolated places over Madhya Maharashtra and Telangana.
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