North-West, Central India can expect fresh rain spell of rain

The monsoon is forecast to be in an ‘active’ phase over the peninsular region during the period from July 29 to August 4 and over North-West India from July 29 to August 11.

This is as per an extended outlook made jointly by the India Met Department, Indian Council of Agriculture Research and the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture.

It said that between August 5 to 11, the monsoon could weaken over the western coastal region and the peninsula and be normal/slightly above normal over the rest of the country.

These forecasts point to a revival of the monsoon from next week, with the Bay of Bengal likely breaking the jinx and setting up a low-pressure area.

On Friday, the Met officially mounted a watch for a ‘low’ forming in the Bay basin over the next two-three days.

A preparatory cyclonic circulation has shown up over the Arakan coast (South Myanmar) and its western flanks have already entered the adjoining East-central Bay, the Met said.

This circulation is expected to move fully into the Bay and intensify into a ‘low’ and help boost the monsoon over Central and adjoining North-West India and the peninsular region.

Evidently, it has moved in as a ‘pulse’ generated by tropical storm Mirinae in the South China Sea, which made landfall over Hanoi, Vietnam, on Thursday.

Westward moving storms in the South China Sea have been known to be beneficial to the Indian monsoon since they send ‘pulses’ ahead, which drop anchor in the Bay.

In fact, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts picks a follow-up storm developing in the North-West Pacific/South China Sea as early as on Saturday.

It would take shape close to the Philippines and move almost to the north to make a muted landfall over South China but could likely send another ‘pulse’ into the Bay.

This could set up a second ‘low’ in the Bay by August 6, which the European Centre sees as growing in strength before crossing the South Odisha-North Andhra Pradesh coast.

If the forecasts were to prove true, these two ‘lows’ should help the monsoon roar back to life and sustain itself during the first two weeks of August.

The subdivision-wise forecast suggested that, during the next two weeks, normal or above normal rainfall is likely to occur over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, west Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telangana and north interior Karnataka.

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