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For the first time since it set in over Kerala on May 29, the monsoon is now backed by an offshore trough, extending all the way from Gujarat to North Kerala, though hampered by the presence of a competing trough from East-Central Arabian Sea to North-East Madhya Pradesh with which it will be forced to share clouds and moisture.
Satellite pictures this (Tuesday) morning showed rain clouds meandering from South Gujarat into West Madhya Pradesh. The northern limit of the monsoon representing areas covered by the monsoon so far extended from Diu, Nandurbar, Jalgaon, Parbhani, Bidar, Tirupati and Puducherry and further into Balurghat (West Bengal) and Supaul (Bihar).
Still running late
It is still running late by various margins over North Tamil Nadu (including Chennai); most of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh; Vidarbha and East Maharashtra; South Chhattisgarh; Odisha; West Bengal; and eastern parts of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) assessed conditions as favourable for it to enter some more parts of Gujarat and South Madhya Pradesh; entire Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu; and some parts of Vidarbha and Telangana; and more parts of Andhra Pradesh by tomorrow (Wednesday).
Telangana, AP, Odisha next
The subsequent two days would likely see it check into more parts of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, plains of West Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand and entire hills of West Bengal. The seasonal rain system would continue to be on its own at least for the next 10 days with no sign of a helpful cyclonic circulation forming in the Bay.
A lone circulation over the East-Central Arabian Sea and the offshore trough along the West Coast are the two systems anchoring currently which helped it to cover Kerala, Karnataka, West Maharashtra and South Gujarat (all along the West Coast); most parts of Tamil Nadu and parts of Rayalaseema (in Andhra Pradesh) till date so far.
Strength of flows suspect
The depth and intensity of the offshore trough is itself suspect currently, and it will stay vulnerable to the volatility of the cross-equatorial flows that make up the monsoon. Global models say these flows have been straying in strength and direction due to extraneous factors. The flows are not expected to straighten out at least until June 23.
The US Climate Prediction Centre has predicted that rainfall will continue to be below normal over Peninsular India during this period though the oppressive heat over North-West India may start to lift from tomorrow (Wednesday) thanks to movement of western disturbances over the region. The IMD has already forecast the arrival of the disturbance, which is projected to be an active system. The flip side is that progress of the monsoon will stay stalled until it exits the country.
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