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Residual moisture being left behind by an erstwhile “active” western disturbance is getting cooled by northwesterly winds and settling down as fog over the plains of northwest, central and adjoining east India.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook on Thursday evening said that the fog is likely to persist during the morning hours for at least three more days. The “active” western disturbance has moved away allowing cooler northwesterlies to fill the plains.
INCREMENTAL MOISTURE
It remains to be seen what the incremental moisture being brought to by a fresh western disturbance, expected to hit the western Himalayan region from Saturday onwards, does to the overall situation.
Normally, rising motion of air and convection associated with the front-end of the western disturbance should warm up the atmosphere and lead to snow of precipitation.
But the IMD doesn't see this happening given the relatively feeble nature of the incoming westerly system. It, in fact, sees minimum temperatures falling by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over northwest and adjoining central India during the next three days.
Minimum temperatures have already fallen by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over northwest and adjoining central India. The lowest minimum temperature of 6 deg Celsius was recorded at Amritsar.
This would mean that the influence of the westerly system would be confined just to the hills and clearer (cloudless) skies emerging over the plains of northwest and adjoining central India. This also explains the expected drop in night temperatures.
In an updated and extended forecast outlook valid until Tuesday next (February 22), the IMD has said that scattered rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
In this manner, it has hinted at an expanded rain cover than was stated in its previous night bulletin along the east coast and immediate interior. This is in agreement with the forecast outlook maintained by leading global models.
A weather warning issued by IMD said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam until Friday. Isolated thunder squalls or hailstorms may also break out over these regions during the same period.
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