A pre-cyclone watch is in effect for the Andhra Pradesh coast as a late-in-the-season monsoon depression prowled south-east Bay of Bengal, quite some distance away from Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh), on Thursday.

The very fact that it would need to traverse more than 1,000 km across very warm waters towards coast would give required time and space to intensify into a severe cyclone, as the India Met Department (IMD) seemed to suggest.

The depression is predicted to intensify further into a deep depression by Thursday night/Friday morning and into a cyclone by Saturday.

Deep depression

The next round of intensification will happen as the cyclone heads for the coast.

Since the pre-cyclone watch is effective for Andhra Pradesh, the landfall of the system is expected to be the North of Chennai.

It would retain a severe cyclone status on Sunday and Monday, during when the landfall could be expected.

The IMD has said that rains would commence at most places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and North Coastal Tamil Nadu (including in Chennai) from Saturday with heavy to very heavy falls expected at isolated places.

Heavy rain

On Sunday, Coastal Andhra Pradesh could receive heavier showers, even extremely heavy (20 cm or more) at isolated places, while the rainfall would be isolated heavy over the region on Monday.

The rains would help replenish the rain-deficit reservoirs in Tamil Nadu to some extent. An extended IMD outlook says rainfall will be normal to above normal for the Peninsula during December 13 to 19.

Squally winds with speed reaching up to 55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr would commence along and off Coastal Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from Saturday morning.

Gale winds reaching speed of up to 70 km/hr gusting to 80 km/hr may prevail along and off Coastal Andhra Pradesh from Sunday morning and scale up gradually thereafter.

comment COMMENT NOW