Rainfall figures as on date show that pre-monsoon showers (March to June) this year could end up the lowest of the last five years, with ramifications for reservoir levels in many parts of the country.

Interestingly, 2015, which recorded the heaviest pre-monsoon showers (see table) in the list, also ended with the worst South-West monsoon (June-September), though there is no direct cause-effect relationship between the two.

But some experts have aired the view that a heavy pre-monsoon season tends to disrupt the heating process of the land, which is crucial for the temperature-pressure gradient (between land and sea) to evolve and ensure a normal South-West monsoon.

The pre-monsoon season is marked by routine churning of the atmosphere as heating of the land causes formation of helpful cyclonic circulations to set up thunderstorms, lightning, heavy rain, even snow or hailstorm.

As on Monday (March 1 to May 13), pre-monsoon showers had a 23 per cent deficit, the worst in the last five years by a huge margin.

It remains to be seen to what extent this will improve over the next fortnight, before the monsoon season officially begins. Although the land started heating up early into the season, the seas did not oblige with cloud-and-rain-repelling anticyclone circulations sitting pretty over both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal for the most part of March and April.

Disruptor ‘Fani’

When the seas showed signs of relenting, extremely severe cyclone ‘Fani’ emerged from nowhere, apportioning to itself the moisture and clouds being generated and dumped them far away in Odisha and East India. Over the 10 days since ‘Fani’ made landfall, heating of land has resumed in right earnest, with heat-wave conditions being currently reported from the very areas in East India that ‘Fani’ had raced through.

A prevailing western disturbance over North-West India has lined up a swarm of thunderstorms over many parts of the northern half of the country as well some parts in the southern half, threatening violent weather.

Thunderstorms, rain

An India Met Department (IMD) update said that rain/thundershowers were observed at most places over the hills of Bengal, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.

Similar weather was also recorded at many places over Assam and Meghalaya; a few places over Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, and Kerala; and at isolated places over Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Odisha, Telangana, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and South Interior Karnataka.

Thunderstorms broke out during this period at a few places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, East Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, the hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and South Interior Karnataka. East Madhya Pradesh recorded hailstorms.

Similar conditions may prevail over these regions over the next two days, the IMD said.

On the other hand, heat-wave conditions ruled over Bihar and in isolated pockets over Vidarbha, Bihar and the plains of Bengal on Sunday.

bl14MayMonsooncol
 

comment COMMENT NOW