True to predictions, a preliminary cyclonic circulation has formed over the South Andaman Sea (South-East Bay of Bengal) and it is expected to descend to the lower levels of the atmosphere to set up a fresh low-pressure area in next two days.

Forecasts with respect to its growth, propagation and movement varies wildly from model to model, with latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) projections indicating movement towards Sri Lanka and South Tamil Nadu.

A few others show a similar movement towards the South Tamil Nadu coast where it weakens and stalls over open seas, but a remnant being kicked back into South-East Bay where it may intensify into a depression and move towards South Myanmar.

Squally weather alert

The IMD has forecast squally weather marked by strong winds (40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph, almost depression) over the South Andaman and adjoining South-East Bay today (Wednesday); central parts of the South Bay tomorrow (Thursday); South-West Bay on Friday; and along the off the Sri Lanka coast on Saturday. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

Meanwhile over the mainland, a heat wave continues to scorch North-West and adjoining Central India while helpful pre-monsoon features (cyclonic circulations or trough/wind discontinuity) keep the North-East and the South Peninsula cooler.

Pre-monsoon features

Signature pre-monsoon feature of a trough/wind discontinuity (a narrow corridor where opposing winds meet) runs down from West Vidarbha towards North Interior Tamil Nadu across Marathawada and Karnataka, setting up thunderclouds and violent weather along the way.

Light isolated/scattered rainfall is likely North Interior Karnataka and Coastal Andhra Pradesh today while similar weather is forecast for Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, and Coastal and South Interior Karnataka for next five days.

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