Agri Business

Rain deficit narrows to 17%, but masks slippage in South

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on July 09, 2019 Published on July 09, 2019

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The strong monsoon over North India may have helped cut down rain deficit to 17 per cent for the country as a whole till date on Tuesday, but it tends to mask the persisting deficit in the South.

Tamil Nadu (49 per cent) leads the deficit chart in the South, with Kerala (45 per cent) is not far behind exactly a month after the monsoon made a delayed onset along the Kerala coast.

Lakshadweep, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Marathawada, Telangana and Vidarbha, too, have fallen into the red by varying margins despite some of these Met subdivisions recording good rain during the onset phase of the monsoon.

It remains to be seen what the neighbouring seas can serve up next in the form of rain-driving systems, and when. According to the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service, the wait may not last much longer.

According to its outlook, the Bay of Bengal would in all probability come up with a crucial circulation/low-pressure area around July 17 off the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast.

The location is ideal for setting up westerly to south-westerly monsoon flows from the Arabian Sea and easterly to south-easterly flows from the Bay to expectedly revive the monsoon.

Ahead of this, the India Met Department (IMD) has projected scattered to to fairly widespread rainfall along the West Coast from July 14, while it would be isolated to scattered rainfall over the rest of the country.

By this time, the intensified low-pressure area currently over East Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Bihar presiding over vigorous monsoon conditions would die out and the monsoon would have lapsed into a brief lull.

Shift to the North

On Tuesday, the IMD located the rain-bearing seasonal monsoon trough as having shifted to the North from its normal diagonal alignment across the plains of North India, and looking to nestle in the foothills of the Himalayas.

Before this happens, the trough would remain active for another three days given the presence of the intensified ‘low’ in the neighbourhood, and cause widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls over Uttar Pradesh.

The North-Eastern States, which are located to one end of the trough, would also witness enhanced rainfall, with widespread rainfall and isolated heavy to very heavy falls.

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Published on July 09, 2019
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