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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that isolated rainfall may break out over Central and adjoining East India and North-East India and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands from February 16 to 18 (Tuesday to Thursday) next, likely heralding a wave of unseasonal rain across the region.
Light to moderate scattered rain and isolated thunderstorm with lightning is possible over East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and light isolated rain and thunderstorm with lightning over Jharkhand, Odisha, Telangana and West Madhya Pradesh on Tuesday and Wednesday next. Isolated rainfall is forecast over parts of South Peninsular India and Arunachal Pradesh, apart from the Bay Islands.
Trough from South to North-East
Atmospheric features over Peninsular India are realigning in advance with a trough (elongated area of low pressure and conducive for change in the prevailing weather) materialising on Thursday afternoon running up from Central Kerala all the way to Vidarbha across Interior Karnataka and Marathwada.
A cyclonic circulation lies over Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining central parts of the South Bay of Bengal (south-east of Sri Lanka). This sudden development has led to the weakening of a prevailing cyclonic circulation, a stand-alone weather feature over the Comorin on show from Thursday morning.
Warmer nights likely
Clouds expected to form into the trough would cause a gradual rise in minimum temperatures (night) by 2-4 Degree Celsius over most parts of Gujarat from later this week. Similarly, night minima may rise by the same margin over East and Central India and Maharashtra, the IMD said.
Outlook by the global Climate Forecast System tends to suggest some tropical activity building up over the South-West Bay of Bengal off South-East Sri Lanka, gathering momentum and spreading rain during the period up to February 19 before it propels to the North-West and reaches the Tamil Nadu coast.
Growing rain footprint
From here, the regime of rain and south-easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal would run into westerly winds from the opposite direction along the trough and across the expanse of low pressure it packs within, to spread interactive showers over the South Peninsula and parts of the rest of the country until March 1.
Normal rain is indicated into March (from March 1-20) over the larger Peninsular India until when the CFS outlook is available. Other global models have already come out with similar outlook suggesting an unusually wet spring and summer before the pre-monsoon season sets in over the country by April.
Western disturbance weakens
Meanwhile, a weather-maker western disturbance that had crossed in from North Pakistan into the hills of North-West India as a cyclonic circulation has weakened this (Thursday) morning. The parent trough too has moved away across the border to the East to lie over Bangladesh and Bhutan by evening.
An incoming fresh feeble western disturbance (which can affect only the hills of North-West India prospectively) has reached Central Pakistan and the IMD located it lay over Multan and surroundings on Thursday afternoon.
Dense to very dense fog over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, East Uttar Pradesh and North-West Rajasthan and Bihar is forecast in the morning hours of Friday and Saturday. Dense fog may hang over the same area into Sunday morning. Odisha too witness dense fog on Friday morning, the IMD said.
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