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The 24 hours ending Tuesday saw heavy to very heavy rain lash Himachal Pradesh, the hills of Bengal, Sikkim, and Kerala while it was heavy over West Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
The western Himalayan region and adjoining North-West India is now witnessing a steady reduction in the intensity of the downpour but the India Met Department (IMD) has advised Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh not to let their guard down just yet.
Monsoon transition
Ongoing rain over the South Peninsula (Kerala, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala) and the North-East (hills of Bengal and Sikkim) is attributed to the monsoon transition phase, and could last for another four to five days.
The IMD has retained its watch for the commencement of the withdrawal of the South-West monsoon from the weekend, almost a month behind schedule and exacerbated by the late rain spell over North-West India.
In fact, from Tuesday, dry weather is forecast to prevail over West Rajasthan, the northwestern-most outpost in the country from where the June-September rain season begins to withdraw.
Moisture associated with the monsoon flow (from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea) will reduce and the rain-friendly south-easterly winds give in gradually to dry northerly-to-north-westerlies. The result is the advent of a rain-suppressing anticyclone over the North-West with sinking motion of air — unlike the ascending (cyclonic) motion in convective systems associated with the monsoon — and a rise in mercury levels.
The forecasts for the next two days for the country as a whole are indicative of the changing pattern of weather associated with the monsoon transition.
For Wednesday, heavy to very heavy rain has been forecast over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya while it would be heavy over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka.
Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning should line up over Telangana, Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Tamilnadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
On Thursday, the heavy to very heavy rain belt will shift to Tamil Nadu and heavy rains to Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka and Telangana.
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning have been forecast over North Interior Karnataka, South Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and South Konkan.
The rain pattern for the South Peninsula resembles that associated with the North-East monsoon whose normal window for onset falls between October 15 and 20.
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