Thursday’s deep depression has wound down a couple of notches in strength into a well-marked low-pressure area and lay over North-East Madhya Pradesh, the gateway to North-West India, on Friday.

Under the influence of the above system, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on Saturday, the India Met Department (IMD) said.

Interactive rain

Further west-north-westward movement by the system could cause an increase in rainfall activity over Rajasthan during the next two days with heavy to very heavy rains at isolated places over East Rajasthan on Saturday.

This will come about as the monsoon easterlies associated with the well-marked ‘low’ interact with the westerly to south-westerly monsoon flows from the North Arabian Sea (off the Konkan-Mumbai-Gujarat coast).

This will set back the monsoon withdrawal process from Rajasthan as the heavy rain cools the atmosphere and prevents the seasonal high-pressure area (anti-cyclone) forming over land.

Meanwhile, there are indications that the anti-cyclone, which repels monsoon flows, will start to descend over the Arabian Sea next week and probably shut down the south-westerly monsoon flows.

Anti-cyclone over sea

The residual south-westerly flows will become north-westerlies to northerlies as they blow parallel to the West Coast (as against being perpendicular during the monsoon) but turn friendly south-westerlies to southerlies around the peninsular tip. They may bring some showers into Tamil Nadu and the adjoining interior peninsula. The rest of the East Coast may also find stray circulations popping up and causing localised rainfall, says a US model forecast.

The IMD said that the south-eastern parts of peninsular India, especially North Tamil Nadu and the adjoining areas of Karnataka and Rayalaseema, might experience an increase in rainfall on Monday and Tuesday.

The North-Eastern States and hills of Bengal and Sikkim may witness a sustained increase in rainfall from Saturday from a circulation over the North Bay delivering likely extremely heavy falls from Monday to Wednesday.

Subdued in South

Elsewhere, over the South Peninsula and adjoining Central India, rainfall activity is likely to remain subdued during the next five days, sustaining the current trend.

The forecast for Saturday said that heavy to very heavy rain may lash the North-Eastern States and East Rajasthan while being heavy over Assam, Meghalaya, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Madhya Pradesh.

An almost similar forecast is valid for Sunday for these areas, but an extended forecast from Wednesday to Friday said that widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over North-East India.

Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over the East, while it will be widespread over the Western Himalayan region. Scattered rainfall is likely over Central India and Tamil Nadu and isolated rainfall is likely over the rest of the country except West Rajasthan, where dry weather is likely during this period.

comment COMMENT NOW