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Heavy rain or snow lashed most places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand for a second day on Monday as an ‘intense’ western disturbance extended its influence over the local weather.
Significant rain/snowfall (in cm) recorded during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning are Batote-9; Banihal and Baderwah-6; Katra and Dharamsala-5each; Jammu-4; Kupwara, Kokarnag, Gulmarg, Qazigund, Tehri and Mukteshwar-3 each; Pahalgaon, Manali, Solan, Una and Nahan-2 each.
Rain or thundershowers lashed most places over the plains in Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh during this period, the India Met Department (IMD) said.
Many places over West Rajasthan; a few places over East Rajasthan; and isolated places over West Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra and Kutch also witnessed varying wet weather.
Meanwhile, the weather-setting western disturbance remained unmoved from its previous day’s perch over North Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir.
North-South trough
Its staying power and intensity was vindicated further on Monday as it cut open a North-South trough from North-West Rajasthan to Marathawada across West Madhya Pradesh.
This opens out a corridor for the alternating wet and stormy weather to filter into Central India and parts of Peninsular India, and plays out true to forecasts.
To the East, another cyclonic circulation left behind by a previous western disturbance persisted over North-East India and was kicking up a lot of fog over East and adjoining North-East India.
El Nino risk down?
A low-pressure area remained unmoved on Tuesday from the previous day over the southern parts of the South Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean.
The net result of all the above weather systems over North and South is interaction between easterly-westerly winds and rains for parts of Central, East and South Peninsular India and the Northern plains.
According to the IMD, the weather thus generated would prevail right up to January 29 with regional and geographical variations even as the next western disturbance rolls into North India by Friday.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that recent observations and climate model outlooks suggest that the immediate risk of El Nino may have passed.
Still, there remains an increased likelihood that El Nino will develop later in 2019. The Bureau’s El Nino outlook has therefore been downgraded from an El Nino Alert to to an ‘El Nino Watch.’
This means there is approximately a 50 per cent chance of El Nino developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter (March-June 2019).
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