Agri Business

Rainfall recess may end soon as fresh easterly is awaited

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on November 19, 2020

Rains may resume over TN next week

The North-East monsoon rainfall activity may remain subdued over South-East Peninsular India (Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood) during the next four days, since a low-pressure area brewing away in the South-East Arabian Sea is luring away a chunk of the flows.


Easterly winds blowing across the South Peninsula lack in speed and depth. But the dry spell would, however, be broken by a fresh spurt of rainfall from November 25 as a fresh easterly wave approaches the South-East Peninsular coast, according to varied model forecasts.

ALSO READ: Wet spell today for South TN, Kerala, Lakshadweep

Fresh easterly wave expected

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentioned the incoming easterly wave in it Thursday morning update, predicting fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, thunderstorm, and isolated heavy rain over Andaman & Nicobar Islands on Saturday and Sunday.

An extended outlook from November 24-26 said that scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershowers along with isolated heavy rainfall may lash Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala. Isolated to scattered rainfall activity is likely over the rest of the South Peninsula.

Thursday’s outlook indicated fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and isolated heavy rainfall are likely over Kerala and Lakshadweep until Friday, as the low-pressure area develops and moves over the South Arabian Sea, farther away from India’s coast.

Away-going low-pressure area

The IMD said that the low-pressure area is likely to form over the central parts of South Arabian Sea by Friday and get a move away west-northwest-ward before concentrating into a depression over Central South Arabian sea and adjoining Central Arabian Sea by Monday.

Meanwhile, weather bloggers in Chennai reconciled to the fact that the North-East monsoon has lapsed into a brief recess, but would come back strong over the next four to five days. Their analysis of the situation is as follows:

@hrishi2: As dry air grips Tamil Nadu coast with continental easterlies in the next 24 hours, clear skies with cool pleasant weather will be seen. A fresh circulation to brew over extreme South-West Bay of Bengal in the next 72 hours with a possibility of slight intensification from thereon.

@RainStorm_TN: Towering Thunderstorms clouds. Could see a rain-shaft in view: East North-East of Tiruppur.

@chennaiweather: Mostly dry weather to prevail in Chennai and rains will be back from November 25 as models slowly reaching consensus over low pressure system formation over the Bay of Bengal and moving towards Sri Lanka/Tamil Nadu coast on November 26.

@JW_Chennai: ECMWF, GFS, CMC started to pick systems in Bay of Bengal as the MJO likely to enter phase 3. Soon social media likely to see many colourful charts flowing in upcoming days from many.

@Chennaisweather: Rains have eased over North Coastal Tamil Nadu as the circulation and associated cloud banding has moved away to Arabian Sea. Today and tomorrow isolated heavy rains possible South and West Tamil Nadu mostly places close to Ghats like Valparai, Coimbatore, Nilgiris and in Kerala.

ALSO READ: Depression watch put out over Arabian Sea


Published on November 19, 2020

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