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Withdrawal of the South-West monsoon has resumed on Tuesday with the road block posed by intervening cyclone Hudhud getting blown away in phases.
The withdrawal line has pushed down along the western flanks into the peninsula while rains triggered by the Hudhud remnant, a depression over east Uttar Pradesh, have slowed the process in east India.
Easterly windsAn India Met Department update said that the South-West Monsoon has exited more parts of west Madhya Pradesh, most of Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan and central Arabian Sea.
Its outlook suggested that easterly winds may start filling peninsular India as early as from Wednesday to replace in entirety the erstwhile south-westerly monsoon regime over the landmass.
From here, onset of the North-East Monsoon over peninsular India would be a logical conclusion. The Met would wait for rains to break out along the east coast and part of peninsular India before taking the call.
‘Low’ likelyGenesis of a likely low-pressure area south-east of Sri Lanka would be the trigger for pulling in the easterlies faster into the island nation as also over south India from around Friday.
The Navy Global Environmental (Navgem) model of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre of the US Navy is also in agreement with this outlook.
The ‘low’ is forecast to move north-northwest, rebound off Sri Lanka, and head towards the Tamil Nadu coast near Chennai, says the Global Forecast System of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.
Rain forecastThe US Navgem model sees the system rolling into south-east Arabian Sea, moving away from India’s south-west coast and gaining intensity to likely storm strength.
During the week ending October 19, moderate to heavy rain may lash south Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu while it will be normal to moderate over rest of Kerala and coastal and south interior Karnataka.
During this period, the Hudhud remnant would continue to drop rain over the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts before signing off with a spurt of rain over the Himalayan foothills of east-Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
The week starting October 20 would see Sri Lanka being washed over by another rain-fed system and break-away rain bands lashing adjoining south Kerala and Tamil Nadu, an outlook by the US Climate Prediction Centre suggested.
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