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The North-West India is enjoying a break from recurring severe thunderstorms, but may have to brace for a fresh outbreak early next week.
Shifting wind regime from south-westerly and easterly to westerly and north-westerly has put a cap for now on severe thunderstorm activity even as a prevailing western disturbance died out.
Calm prevails
The recent rough weather had occurred as the passing western disturbances interacted with seasonal thunderstorms, raising their frequency and intensity.
As of Thursday, this has more or less ended save for flare-ups here and there. This apparent calm may prevail until the next western disturbance arrives by Sunday. This is once again expected to trigger interaction as the intervening heating of the land would spawn fresh seasonal thunderstorms.
Sustained heating over three to four days causes air to move up even as the space is filled by air rushing in from neighbourhood. Passing western disturbances as well easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal pipe in moisture into the system making for a volatile mix, resulting in severe thunder, lightning, thunderstorms and hail.
Volatile East
For now, East , North-East and the peninsular India are the current favourite areas for thunderstorms accompanied by fierce winds and heavy rain.
There is an array of supportive systems available in the form of cyclonic circulations, troughs and the odd pre-monsoon ‘wind discontinuity’ (area where winds abruptly change direction) to signal violent weather.
North-South troughs dissect the land from Uttarakahand to south Uttar Pradesh and from North-West Rajasthan to south Madhya Maharashtra, the India Met Department (IMD) said on Thursday.
Another trough runs from East Bihar to North-East Odisha across plains of Bengal topped off by a cyclonic circulation over Bengal.
The IMD has forecast scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls and squall over East and North-East India for the next two to three days.
Arabian Sea ‘signs’
Mostly similar outlook is valid for South India given the presence of a potent cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea (off Kerala coast).
A trough runs from here in a North-East direction to link North Interior Karnataka. A cyclonic circulation is parked over the Comorin region.
Some models see a low-pressure area/depression, even a cyclone evolving and travelling away from Lakshadweep headed towards South Yemen/Gulf of Aden.
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