Private forecaster Skymet Weather has predicted that the onset of South-West monsoon over Kerala will likely occur on May 26, six days in advance of the normal June 1 timeline, with a model error of +/- three days.

Earlier on Thursday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) had indicated that the monsoon may enter the South Andaman Sea, the farthest outpost in the territorial waters, by May 15 (Sunday), which too is early by a week. The IMD is expected to come out with its own assessment of a likely onset dynamics for Kerala soon.

‘Asani’ enables process

Skymet said in its outlook statement that the onset process is chiefly controlled by the oceanic conditions, both in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Recent cyclone ‘Asani’ enabled the monsoon stream to lock in over the Bay, earlier than normal. Also, the remnant of this storm, as a depression over Peninsular India, has been instrumental in initiating the cross-equatorial monsoon flow.

Also read
Clouds hang over the Bay of Bengal in anticipation of a cyclonic circulation that could likely set up another low-pressure area which could in turn drag the monsoon over South Myanmar earlier this year.

Monsoon may reach Myanmar earlier than normal this year

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts hints at heavy rain over the South-East Bay of Bengal and the South-East Arabian Sea, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka on Sunday

South-West monsoon may enter South Andaman Sea over next three days, says IMD

Normal monsoon outlook

The combined influence has scared away the obstructing presence of a seasonal anti-cyclone from over the central parts of the Arabian Sea, an essential condition for ingress of the monsoon flows . This will also be assisted by an MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) wave entering the Indian Ocean, albeit with low amplitude. Pre-monsoon showers will be extensive and powerful over Kerala, Skymet said.

Earlier, Skymet had said in its outlook that the June-September monsoon would be ‘normal’ to the tune of 98 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA), while the IMD predicted 99 per cent. This would make 2022 the fourth consecutive year of normal or above-normal monsoon.

Related Topics
comment COMMENT NOW