Close on the heels of identical predictions from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Application Laboratory of Japanese national forecaster Jamstec, the South Korean Asia-Pacific Climate Centre, too, has put out a watch for a rain-friendly La Nina developing during October-December.

The South Korean agency assessed a 67 per cent chance for ‘weak La Nina’ conditions to develop. But these may not sustain into the New Year, giving way instead to a ‘neutral’ (neither La Nina or El Nino) during January-March into the 2022 early summer season. Last year, La Nina affected neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, South-East Asia, Great Horn of Africa and countries in the Pacific. In India, post-monsoon rainfall last year and winter rainfall this year were affected. However, agricultural exports gained as cereal production in countries such Indonesia, Iran, Iraq and the Phillipines, besides nations in the Great Horn of Africa were affected.

But this time, La Nina might bring in more rains. During October-December, temperatures may rule above normal over Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh; Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, and slightly over East India; Gujarat; Rajasthan; and extreme South Peninsula while being cooler over the North Peninsula (Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh).

Above-average rainfall is indicated during this phase for Uttar Pradesh; Bihar; Jharkhand; Odisha; Chhattisgarh; Andhra Pradesh; Telangana; and Maharashtra while it would be normal for the entire country except the meteorological subdivision of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh.

2022 outlook

Outlook for January-March next year (2022) suggests above normal rain for most of Peninsular India, the West Coast, and the plains of West Bengal. North-West India, too, may make gains with above normal rain over Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh; Punjab; Himachal Pradesh; north Rajasthan; Delhi; west Uttar Pradesh; and entire North-East India, except extreme northern parts of Arunachal Pradesh.

Below normal rain is indicated for Gujarat, Rajasthan, south Uttar Pradesh; and entire East India covering most of central and east Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and east Maharashtra (Vidarbha), the Korean agency says.

October likely wettest

Performance outlook for individual months shows October witnessing above normal rain for most parts of the country except the extreme tip of Kerala and south Tamil Nadu. In November, this changes to being above normal for the southern and eastern two-thirds of the country and below normal over the rest (east and south Gujarat and the entire North-West).

Excess rain is indicated for south coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal and interior Tamil Nadu, presumably from a concurrent North-East monsoon that gets underway, though this runs contrary to the received wisdom that La Nina conditions are contra-indicative for the North-East monsoon.

Strong North-East monsoon conditions are indicated for Tamil Nadu into December, while the rest of the Peninsula may see above-normal rainfall. But most of the northern, central and eastern two-thirds of the country, except Gujarat and west Rajasthan, will likely be relatively dry.

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