South-West monsoon likely to be normal this year

India is likely to receive a “normal” South-West monsoon this year, with the country as a whole receiving 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 88 cm rainfall, the Ministry of Earth Sciences Secretary, M Rajeevan, said on Wednesday.

The chances of getting a good monsoon, which is important for agricultural activities in particular and the economy in general, are very high with 45 per cent probability of receiving rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA, while the probability of receiving deficient rains (below 90 per cent of LPA) was a mere 9 per cent, he said. The probability for rainfall in the range of 104 to 110 per cent of the LPA i s 21 per cent, which is the average rainfalll received during the South-West monsoon annually between 1961 and 2000.

Rajeevan, who along with India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director, General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, released the first stage long-range monsoon forecast here, said both El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the ocean warming phenomena that influence the quantum of rainfall that India gets during the South-West monsoon, are neutral this year.

While the El Nino is linked to deficient rains, a positive IOD brings in more rains to the Indian landmass. However, he said, some models suggest La Nina conditions, which leads to better rains during the latest part of the monsoon.

With 60 per cent of the country’s fields being rain-fed, the monsoon, which accounts for more than 70 per cent of annual rainfall, is critically important for farming and economic growth.

The MoES Secretary also said while the onset and withdrawal dates for the monsoon remain June 1 and October 15 respectively, the date of onset and withdrawal, particularly in the central and northwestern regions of the country, have seen some change and an expert committee which looked into the actual onset and withdrawal dates in these regions between 2016 and 2019 have redrawn the dates accordingly.

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