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Rain or thundershowers are expected to begin over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next two days and increase thereafter.
This could likely set the stage for the onset of southwest monsoon over the islands, the first port of call for the seasonal rains.
CYCLONIC WHIRL
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already located a cyclonic circulation over west central Bay of Bengal.
This would be the pivot around which an anticipated low-pressure area would build in the Bay.
Foreign weather models signal formation of the ‘low’, which would get intensified as a rain ‘pulse’ emerges in from South China Sea.
The normal monsoon onset window for the region is May 15 to 20, to be followed by break-out of rains over mainland two weeks hence.
A counterpart ‘low’ is forecast to form over the Arabian Sea, but the stronger Bay system would call the shots leading to its decay.
WESTERLY SYSTEM
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook suggested that the rain or thundershowers over the Bay islands would continue until the weekend.
Meanwhile in the northwest, a prevailing western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and its entourage are on the way out to the east and away from the country.
Day temperatures may look up by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over northwest and adjoining central India during next two days.
A fresh western disturbance is expected to enter northwest India from Wednesday, the IMD forecast said.
The pre-monsoon trough running from sub-Himalayan West Bengal to south Tamil Nadu across Orissa and Andhra Pradesh persisted.
THUNDERSTORMS
Forecast valid until Thursday said rain or thundershowers may break out over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Dust storms or thunderstorms have been forecast over Punjab, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the western disturbance on the way out to the east is expected to ‘ignite’ weather over east and northeast India.
Thunder squalls with wind speeds reaching 50 to 60 km/hr would scythe through over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during next two days.
vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in
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