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The hills (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) of North-West India as well the plains (Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh) are bracing for stormy weather and heavy rain/snowfall, mainly on Thursday and Friday.
This is attributed to a successive, incoming active western disturbance that, lay over East Iran and adjoining Afghanistan on Wednesday afternoon, which had set up a cyclonic circulation ahead of it over South Pakistan and neighbourhood.
Moisture feed
Western disturbances are major weather creators over North-West India/Central India, and, depending on amplitude and depth, can alter the weather even over South India, as has been on view over the past few days. Offshoots of the Arctic jet stream, they travel periodically from the Mediterranean and across West and Central Asia and modulates winter weather over India.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the offspring cyclonic circulation would feed up on enormous moisture from the nearby North Arabian Sea (off the coasts of Sindh in Pakistan and Gujarat). The warm, ascending air associated with the circulation will cool in the heights and condense to form rain, snow or hail to the accompaniment of high winds and lightning.
Rain from Thursday
The IMD has warned of widespread rainfall/snowfall over the hills from Thursday to Saturday. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, and isolated to scattered over Rajasthan.
Thunderstorms, lightning, hail and gusty wind (speeds reaching 30-40 km/hr) are forecast over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and North Rajasthan on Thursday and Friday.
Heavy rain/snowfall is forecast for over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh from Thursday to Saturday; and over Uttarakhand on Thursday and Friday. Heavy rainfall is also likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi on Thursday and Friday; and over West Uttar Pradesh on Friday.
Thunderstorms
Winds associated with the disturbance would interact with opposing moist easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal Wednesday to Friday over East and adjoining Central India. This will cause moderate-scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorm, lightning, hail and gusty winds (speeds reaching 30-40 km/hr) over Odisha, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh.
Dipping westerlies have already triggered pre-monsoon showers over parts of South India, and the trend will likely hold into the weekend. By Wednesday evening, fresh convection had developed to the South of Thiruvananthapuram, sitting over Kanyakumari-Nagercoil in Tamil Nadu. Rain intensity may reduce to being normal from March 13 to April 1, but pick up again from April 1, says an outlook from the CFS (Climate Forecast System or Coupled Forecast system).
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