Rice prices in the global market have increased by as much as $25 a tonne for the cereal originating from Thailand and $6-10 for shipments from Vietnam and Pakistan over the past three weeks. This is even as the market is witnessing several developments following increasing demand and projections of lower production.

Indonesia is scouting to buy 0.5 million tonnes (mt) of rice, while Bangladesh is looking to import a similar volume on a government-to-government basis. African nations, too, are under pressure to import rice after the shortage of the grain created unrest in some parts.

Lanka cubs imports

Amidst these developments, Sri Lanka has curbed rice imports to help its farmers fetch better prices for their paddy. Its President Ranil Wickramasinghe told Parliament last week that the island nation is expecting a good crop in the current main Maha season and would want to ensure good prices to the growers.

“This is just the start. Once a clear picture is available on Indian kharif rice production and Food Corporation of India (FCI) procurement, the market will try and find a balance on the upside since global production is lower this year,” said S Chandrasekaran, a trade analyst.

The Agriculture Market Information System of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation has forecast rice production this year at 512.8 mt against 525.6 mt last year. Other global organisations such as International Grains Council have also estimated the output to be lower. 

India set to catch up

“Global prices are rising. Indian prices will soon see an uptrend as domestic rates are increasing,” said VR Vidya Sagar, Director, Bulk Logix. 

While main rice-exporting nations such as Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan have hiked their prices, Indian prices have remained unchanged during the period (see Table). “But our prices will be hiked shortly,” said Sagar. 

The weighted average price of rice has currently increased to ₹3,502 a quintal, up ₹200 from a year ago. Paddy prices are ruling at ₹2,355.75 a quintal against the minimum support price of ₹2,040 this year. Rice is retailing at ₹37.89 a kg, data from the Consumer Affairs Ministry show. Prices have gained nearly 8 per cent this year. 

Indian traders are keenly watching the kharif rice procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI), which is currently 13 per cent higher compared with last year, and a clear picture of kharif rice production. 

India most competitive

Deficient rainfall is feared to have affected the cereal’s production this year in key growing areas in West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh. The Ministry of Agriculture has estimated kharif rice production at 104.99 mt against 111.76 mt last year. 

Despite this, Indian rice prices are the most competitive in the global market. The competitiveness is also in spite of the Centre imposing curbs on the grain’s shipments from September 9. The Government has banned exports of fully broken rice and imposed a 20 per cent export duty on non-basmati white rice exports. 

Though Indonesia’s government procurement agency Bulog is looking to buy 0.5 mt of rice, it has not approached India as yet. Indian exporters are irked over Jakarta approaching New Delhi for broken rice rather than white rice. 

“Indian trade officials met Indonesian trade officials a few days ago. But there was no demand from Indonesia for rice from India,” said a trader without wishing to identify. The Rice Exporters Association of India has taken up the issue with Indian and Indonesian officials, particularly the Indonesian Ambassador to India in New Delhi.

Bangla’s search

Bangladesh officials have been visiting Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia to source 0.5 mt of parboiled rice for distribution through its public distribution system. But it has not been successful in getting the foodgrain at the price of its choice.

It has now turned to India for the rice. The issue will likely be discussed when Bangladesh Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi visits New Delhi during December 21-24 and holds talks with his Indian counterpart Piyush Goyal. 

“The problem in the rice market is that crops in even countries such as Pakistan, Cambodia and Myanmar which can chip in during such situations have been affected,” a trader said. 

“We are getting enquiries from West Africa, mainly countries like Ethiopia and Benin,” said Bulk Logix’s Sagar. Benin has become the second-largest buyer of Indian rice in recent years. In the first half this fiscal, it has imported 0.78 mt.

Exports rise

Meanwhile, Sri Lankan importers will need licences to ship in rice contracted after December 9.  The import curbs have resulted in rice mill owners hiking paddy prices to Lankan rupees (LKR) 6,400 per 64-kg bag from LKR 6,000.

Sri Lanka was among the top 10 rice importers from India. In the first half of the current fiscal, it bought 3.79 lakh tonnes of rice valued at  953.63 crore. Last fiscal, it imported 4.21 lakh tonnes of rice valued at ₹1,258 crore, data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority showed.

In the first half of the current fiscal, India exported 10.21 mt of rice worth $3.64 billion compared with 9.67 mt shipped during the same period ago at a value of $3.47 billion. 

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